Omaha, Neb. — July 14, 2026 — Carson Group, a leading wealth advisory firm with over $60 billion* in assets under management (AUM), today released its 2026 Midyear Outlook, “Still Riding the Wave.” The report finds that while the second half of the year may bring choppier conditions for investors, the combination of accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) investment, strong corporate earnings, continued fiscal expansion and a Federal Reserve expected to look past elevated inflation should continue to support equities.
As the report notes, Carson Group is raising its full-year S&P 500 total return forecast to 15-18 percent, up from its prior 12-15 percent target, after the index delivered a 10.2 percent total return in the first half of the year. Carson’s investment research team expects bonds to finish the year with returns of 3-5 percent, supported by higher starting yields but challenged by persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve that is likely to remain on hold.
“After a solid, low double-digit return for stocks in the first half of the year, we do not think the good times are over and remain optimistic about the rest of 2026,” said Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. “The waves behind this bull market remain powerful tailwinds, with earnings and profit margins helping drive prices higher, even amid uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, inflation and the Fed.”
The report highlights the scale of the AI infrastructure buildout as a central driver of the current market environment. Over the last five quarters through the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth averaged 1.9 percent annualized, with real investment spending on information technology equipment and software contributing roughly 0.9 percentage points per quarter. The outlook notes that 2026 capital expenditure estimates for major technology firms have increased to approximately $740 billion, or about 2.3 percent of GDP, more than four times the level seen in 2023.
At the same time, Carson cautions that inflation remains a key risk. The report points to broader inflation pressures beyond energy and tariffs, including AI-related bottlenecks and non-housing services. The team expects the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in 2026, which could help the economy and markets continue to run hot, while creating a more difficult backdrop for bonds. Similarly, the team notes that higher borrowing costs could drag on certain areas of the economy, such as housing.
“Inflation is not just an energy story anymore, and it is not only about tariffs,” said Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group. “AI-related demand is boosting investment spending but also creating bottlenecks across parts of the economy, while the labor market and consumer spending remain resilient enough to keep nominal growth strong. That combination makes the Fed’s job more complicated, but for now we believe the committee is likely to look through inflation rather than move aggressively, which supports stocks but argues for a broader approach to diversification.”
Additional takeaways from the 2026 Midyear Outlook include:
- Carson remains overweight equities relative to bonds, supported by an inflationary growth environment, strong earnings driven by expanding profit margins and continued AI-related capital spending.
- The team believes recession risk over the next year remains low, with job growth improving, unemployment holding near historically low levels and nominal consumer spending running well above recent trends.
- Carson expects the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year near 4.5 percent, with a bias toward lower outcomes, and continues to target below-benchmark interest rate sensitivity within fixed income allocations.
- Carson continues to favor balanced global equity exposure, noting that while the U.S. remains the leader in AI innovation, the AI trade is broadening internationally with large gains in Korea and Taiwan.
- The team notes that midterm election years have historically brought larger market pullbacks, but also says investors should avoid letting political views drive investment decisions, as broader macro forces tend to matter more for markets.
The report emphasizes “diversifying the diversifiers,” including managed futures, Treasury inflation-protected securities, floating rate corporate debt and low-volatility stocks, as bonds may be less effective as diversifiers in an inflationary growth environment.
Carson Group Investment Research believes in strategic, long-term decision-making. Volatility and unsettling headlines happen, and one of the most important skills of successful long-term investors is knowing how to patiently navigate through volatility. The 2026 Midyear Outlook is a general guide for investors and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations.
About Carson Group
Carson Group manages over $60 billion* in assets and serves more than 60,000 client families among its advisory network of 165+ partner offices, including more than 50 Carson Wealth locations. For more information about Carson Group and partnership opportunities, visit https://www.carsongroup.com/work-with-us/
Carson Group is a dba of CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services are offered through CWM, LLC. CWM, LLC is a subsidiary of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. *AUM amount is based on total assets under Carson Group Holdings, LLC., which include CWM, LLC and Northwest Capital Management, Inc.
