Articles authored by Barry Gilbert

Tomorrow, October 19, will mark the one-year anniversary of the peak in the 10-year Treasury yield. According to CBOE’s US Treasury Yield Index, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.99% on Thursday, October 19, 2023. Even with the recent backup in yields, that’s about 0.9%-points above the current level. Bond returns over the last year …

We are now within four weeks of election day, although early voting is already taking place in an increasing number of states. My colleague Sonu Varghese provided an excellent update on the election Tuesday. If you read it, you’ll notice it’s called Part 1. Watch for Part 2 next Tuesday. One of our top market …

Whether you’re engaged with the market every day or only once in a while, sometimes it’s easy to miss the forest for the trees. We just finished the third quarter of 2024, and really it was an extraordinary quarter. If I had to pick out one theme, it would be expanding market breadth, something we …

The pandemic and post-pandemic environment has been a breeding ground of economic anomalies born out of deep disruptions and policy extremes that have echoed across the years. That doesn’t mean good economic analysis doesn’t hold true; it does mean that good analysis takes some extra work. You couldn’t just paint by numbers over the last …

Have you noticed Carson has been talking about artificial intelligence (AI) a lot lately? Below is a little roll call of 20 of our blogs (and a podcast) on AI so far in 2024. Among the authors, you’ll see the names of Carson’s Portfolio Managers, Jake Bleicher and Sr. Analyst, Investment Blake Anderson, come up …

As long as employment is strong, consumer spending will be strong. Yes, job gains slowed in July but prime age (25-54) participation in the labor market remains near record levels, layoffs remain low, and aggregate income growth has been solid. Those numbers were the underpinning of a large upside surprise in July retail sales. Headline …

There were few surprises in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data yesterday for July. The “headline” reading was in line with expectations at 0.2%, which brought the one-year reading down to 2.9% versus expectations of 3.0%. The core reading (excluding food and energy) was also in line with expectations at 0.2% for the month …

This was a “goldilocks” GDP report, with enough strength to be reassuring but not so much that it weighed on the likelihood of a September rate cut. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% in the second quarter, after adjusting for inflation. This was well above expectations of a 2.0% increase and acceleration …

The next jobs report comes out on August 2. There is a chance the report may trigger a recession signal called the Sahm rule, with an accompanying viral explosion of misinterpretation and misinformation. While the Sahm rule may not trigger, we thought it would be useful to get ahead of things and provide some thoughts …

The 2024 Republican National Convention ended on Thursday with former President Donald Trump’s acceptance of his party’s nomination. We also can’t ignore the other events in the last several weeks, including the contemptable attempt on former President Trump’s life and the ongoing uncertainty about President Joe Biden’s candidacy following his poor debate performance on June …