Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.
Ryan and Sonu discuss:
- Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.
- Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.
- Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.
- Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.
- Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.
- Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.
Resources:
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