3 Big Themes, and What It Means for Investing

One of the central themes in our 2024 Outlook was higher productivity growth over the next several years. The key idea was that tight and mature labor markets enhance worker productivity and incentivize businesses to organize work more efficiently and invest in technological resources. That’s something that doesn’t happen when labor is cheap. With better …

Rates Are Higher, Just Like Everyone Expected

“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” -General Patton   The quote above is one that I’ve used more in my career than probably any other quote. Markets are all about what is priced in and what isn’t, suggesting that the big opportunities can be found by going against the crowd in some …

The Art of Investing

“It’s obvious that studying history and philosophy was much better preparation for the stock market than, say, studying statistics. Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who’ve been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage.” -Peter Lynch   For more than twenty years, I’ve invested in individual stocks with …

Talking About AI with Dan Ives

Discover the transformative power of AI as we explore its impact on the tech industry and beyond! This week on the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Dan Ives, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities. They …

Stocks Can Go Down

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”- Winston Churchill   After more than a 30% total return on the S&P 500 the past 12 calendar months, a five month win streak, and a 27% rally in the first 100 trading days off the late October lows, we could finally be looking …

Earnings Season is Springing into Bloom: A Look Under the Hood

As the daffodils bloom, signaling the arrival of spring, it’s also time for the earnings season to commence for the first quarter. Despite the S&P 500’s impressive double-digit rally to start the year, expectations for Q1 remain modest, with analysts forecasting just under 4% earnings growth. However, forecasts suggest a significant acceleration, culminating in double-digit …

What’s Happening with Interest Rates

We’ve been getting a lot of questions about the interest rate environment, and especially what might happen to longer-term rates if the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) begins to cut the fed funds rate, even though the short-term increase in rates has been front of mind, but we’ll cover that as well. I’m going to cut to …

Is It Time to Worry About Inflation Again?

Short answer: likely not. Make no mistake, inflation ran hot in the first quarter, especially relative to the fourth quarter of 2023. The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was an unwelcome surprise. Both headline and core inflation (excluding food and energy) came in above expectations. Headline inflation is up 3.5% from last year, and …

Are Democrats or Republicans Better for Stocks?

“George Washington was the only president who didn’t blame the previous administration.” -Source unknown   How’s that for a title for a blog? Now that I have your attention, let’s talk a little bit about election years. We are getting the question of who is better for stocks a lot lately and given the election …

Total Eclipse of the Bears

With the bull market we have had for several months now, it is normal for some to have doubts about its continuation. What can we expect for the markets? How is the economy doing and why should investors consider it? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, …

Beyond the Proxy: Disney’s Magical Path to Profitability

The recent proxy battle between the Walt Disney Company and Nelson Peltz thrust shareholder discontent into the spotlight, underscoring concerns about the company’s performance. While activist investors like Peltz often come under fire for their short-term focus and disruptive methods, Disney’s struggles over the past four years warranted closer scrutiny. Peltz mounted a robust campaign, …

Questions to Consider During a Market Downturn

Questions to Consider During a Market Downturn

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