Insights Investments

This was a “goldilocks” GDP report, with enough strength to be reassuring but not so much that it weighed on the likelihood of a September rate cut. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% in the second quarter, after adjusting for inflation. This was well above expectations of a 2.0% increase and acceleration …

The next jobs report comes out on August 2. There is a chance the report may trigger a recession signal called the Sahm rule, with an accompanying viral explosion of misinterpretation and misinformation. While the Sahm rule may not trigger, we thought it would be useful to get ahead of things and provide some thoughts …

“I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.” -Groucho Marx   Have you tried to fly this week? My oh my, what a mess out there. On both Sunday and Monday nights I was stuck at airports until well past midnight. I made it to Minnesota this week for some …

Market chaos and travel nightmares might seem unrelated, but they both reveal deeper systemic issues and opportunities. How do travel disruptions reflect broader economic vulnerabilities? What historical parallels can we draw to understand current market trends? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at …

Earnings continue to roll in, though they’ve had little impact to the market’s narrative thus far. The focus has been on the resurgence of small caps (see Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick’s blog here), and my, what a week it has been. While we do expect the earnings reports of the large technology companies to …

President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, although the endorsement does not necessarily mean she will win the nomination. The change in the Democratic ticket does not change our fundamental view of the election, which we discussed at length in our recently …

The 2024 Republican National Convention ended on Thursday with former President Donald Trump’s acceptance of his party’s nomination. We also can’t ignore the other events in the last several weeks, including the contemptable attempt on former President Trump’s life and the ongoing uncertainty about President Joe Biden’s candidacy following his poor debate performance on June …

The US economy mostly runs on the back of household consumption, and so the manufacturing sector is usually bit of an afterthought. Though its salience has increased recently amid the 2024 presidential election campaign, and especially former President’s Trump’s preference for a weaker dollar to boost the export sector. Still, the headline news from the …

“You’re killin’ me, Smalls!” -Ham Porter in The Sandlot We’ve liked small caps all year and we’ll be the first to admit they’ve been frustrating. But the times, they are a-changin’! I will share a lot of charts and tables (in no particular order) as to why we think this underloved, underappreciated, and underowned area …

Inflation is no longer the primary concern for investors, as market dynamics begin to shift and new opportunities arise. How do recent inflation trends impact market behavior? What are the implications of the recent rally in small caps, and how do geopolitical events influence market reactions? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at …

We cover a lot of ground in our 2024 Midyear Outlook, but one area worth diving into more is non-US equities. Over the past 15 years, international stocks have only outperformed the U.S. stock market in 12.5% of rolling 12-month periods, not exactly compelling! This year has not started off any different, with the S&P …