Investments
Inflation Read: On Track for a September Cut but not Out of the Woods Yet
The market cheered the July Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) inflation report released yesterday, August 13, 2025, but mostly because it was perceived to be good enough to keep the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) on track for a September rate cut. The market-implied odds for a September cut rose from 86% to 94% according to the CME …
Barry Gilbert
August 13, 2025
Trump’s Executive Order Could Open 401(k)s to Alternatives
Authored by Michael Barczak, CFA, VP Retirement Plans – Investments President Trump just signed an executive order that could set the stage for a major shift in workplace retirement plans. The order directs the Department of Labor (DOL) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to take a fresh look at how alternative assets …
Carson Research
August 12, 2025
Technology Earnings Takeaways
Investors in tech stocks are walking away from this earnings season with a smile. The five major tech companies all saw a positive revision to their full year earnings estimates, according to FactSet data, and each has seen its share price rise since the start of this reporting season. Forward-looking commentary also supports a potentially …
Blake Anderson
August 11, 2025
From Our View, These Are The Best Seven Charts Right Now
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame Yankees catcher I was honored to be included in the fifth volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook! This incredible report is compiled by Josh Schaefer, Markets Reporter at Yahoo Finance, and we think it is simply a must read for all …
Ryan Detrick
August 8, 2025
The Two Sides of AI in the Economy
This chart from our friend, Neil Dutta, Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro, tells an absolutely incredible story if you ask me: it tells you that spending on artificial intelligence (both IT hardware equipment and software) contributed an average of 1.0%-point to GDP growth over the last two quarters. That’s more than the contribution of …
Sonu Varghese
August 7, 2025
7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip On July 20, we passed the first six months of the second Trump administration, or 1/8 of the way into Donald Trump’s second term. Over time we have been updating our view of potential policy risks, within the …
Barry Gilbert
August 7, 2025
You’re Fired!
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the latest surprising jobs data, significant payroll revisions, and President Trump’s controversial firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen. Ryan and Sonu also provide insights into the Fed’s next moves, inflation challenges, …
Ryan Detrick
August 6, 2025
Some Bad News and Some Good News
“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.” Oscar Wilde After stocks gained more than 2% in July, the first day of August landed with a thud, as the S&P 500 fell 1.60%, the first 1% drop since before Flag Day (June 13) and worst overall single day …
Ryan Detrick
August 5, 2025
The Economy Is Currently Being Held Up By AI
This was a big week if you wanted to get a picture of the economy, inflation, and even policy (both monetary and tariffs). Here’s the big picture: The labor market is clearly slowing, despite a low headline unemployment rate of 4.2%. Soft payroll growth and easing wage growth means aggregate income growth is slowing. Inflation …
Sonu Varghese
August 1, 2025
Here Comes August, Buckle Up
When asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton replied, “Because that’s where the money is.” I wish I knew why, but August is a month that tends to have a lot of out-of-the-blue scary events pop up and with that comes a good deal of market volatility. Who could forget last August? Stocks fell more …
Ryan Detrick
July 31, 2025
Earnings Growth Continues to Support Market Gains
When it comes to stocks, in the long run earnings are everything since the ability to grow earnings gives stocks their fundamental value, and in the long run earnings have followed a fairly steady path, with higher margins really since early 2000 offsetting lower sales due to slower global growth. On the other hand, in …
Barry Gilbert
July 30, 2025
Au Revoir, Trade War
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the recent easing of global trade tensions and how markets have responded positively. They dive into three popular market myths currently being debated, analyze corporate earnings, and provide their reasoning on why stocks …
Ryan Detrick
July 30, 2025