Investments
3 Takeaways from a Near-Bear Market
It may be a little early to do a post-mortem on the February 19 – April 8, 2025 near-bear market, but maybe it’s not too early to find perspective that we didn’t have “in the moment.” Despite the unusual driver of this particular near-bear market, really just a single actor (who also gets credit for …
Barry Gilbert
May 14, 2025
Holy Smokes, Are the Lows In?
In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors. After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally …
Ryan Detrick
May 14, 2025
Why This Rally Is Like a Beach Ball Under Water
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch, famed mutual fund manager What a few months for investors. After crashing more than 10% only two days after Liberation Day on April 2, fear and panic were in the …
Ryan Detrick
May 13, 2025
Tech Leaders Testify
Leaders from some of the companies at the forefront of the AI Revolution appeared on Capitol Hill this week to testify before the Senate Commerce Committee. Their remarks focused primarily on America’s artificial intelligence capabilities amid a dynamic geotechnical landscape. These leaders emphasized the benefits of building with technological freedom and pointed to competitive …
Blake Anderson
May 12, 2025
How To Identify a Recession, and Why It Matters for Investors
Recession calls have increased since the Liberation Day tariff extravaganza, with most economists increasing the odds of a recession in the next 12 months quite significantly relative to odds at the beginning of the year. The Wall Street Journal’s panel of economists raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 45% …
Sonu Varghese
May 9, 2025
The Fed Is Buying Into the Tariff Bull Case, but That Pushes Out Cuts
The Federal Reserve (Fed) didn’t move policy rates at their May meeting, keeping them in the 4.25-4.50% range. This was widely expected, but all eyes (and ears) were on how they would telegraph future moves. Short answer: they didn’t. The only major change in the official post-meeting statement was that risks of higher unemployment and …
Sonu Varghese
May 8, 2025
The Bull and Bear Case for Bonds
Bonds have actually had a good run over the last year (for bonds). The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is up 5.8% trailing year as of yesterday’s close versus 4.9% for the Bloomberg US 1-3 Month Treasury Bill Index. That’s a fair discount to the S&P 500 over the same period (9.7%), but still …
Barry Gilbert
May 7, 2025
Slowing, Not Cracking
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, …
Ryan Detrick
May 7, 2025
About Last Month
“It is human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity.” Jeff Bezos, Executive Chairman and Former CEO, Amazon What an end to April, and May is off to a strong start as well. In fact, the S&P 500 finished higher the last seven days of April, trying the longest win streak to end that month …
Ryan Detrick
May 6, 2025
Under the Hood: Tech Earnings Takeaways
Investors digested results from some of the largest companies in the world this past week. The reports largely met or exceeded expectations, with five of the six largest companies trading higher after their announcements – perhaps reflective of ‘better than feared’ reports. These positive surprises were a welcome relief to investors who may have entered …
Blake Anderson
May 5, 2025
The Labor Market Hasn’t Cracked, but That Means Higher Rates for Longer
The economy created 177,000 jobs in April, above expectations for 138,000 jobs. At the same time, this number can be revised quite a lot. (Job creation in February and March were revised down by a combined 58,000.) This is why the 3-month average is more useful, and right now that’s at 155,000. That’s not great, …
Sonu Varghese
May 2, 2025
How Have Active Managers Navigated 2025?
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett. An apt quote at this part of the year, as we head towards the Berkshire annual shareholder meeting to pay homage to one of the best active managers of all time. The first four months of this year have …
Grant Engelbart
May 1, 2025