Investments
Carson Investment Research Presents Its Midyear Outlook 2025: Uncharted Waters
The Carson Investment Team was proud to release our Midyear Outlook 2025: Uncharted Waters this morning. Few would have thought at the April 8 lows, with the S&P 500 down nearly 20%, that markets would make such a furious comeback. Yet here we sit in early July with the S&P 500 at a total return …
Barry Gilbert
July 11, 2025
How Will the One, Big, Beautiful Tax Bill Impact Markets?
One of the opportunities we highlighted in our 2025 Outlook was a big tax bill that boosted corporate profits, similar to 2017. We never believed it would be as large as the 2017 tax bill’s boost on profits—after all you can only cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% once—but there was still …
Sonu Varghese
July 9, 2025
Midyear Market Outlook ’25
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025. Reflecting on major surprises in the first half of the year, including unexpected tariff announcements and subsequent reversals, they analyze market performance in the first half of the …
Ryan Detrick
July 9, 2025
The Sweet Spot
“When you hit the sweet spot, it’s not the club that sings—it’s your soul.” – Ben Hogan What a first half it was, as the S&P 500 was down close to 20% at the April lows and incredibly came back to new highs already, one of the fastest recoveries ever. We’ve discussed why this market …
Ryan Detrick
July 8, 2025
Technology Earnings Preview
Technology stocks came roaring back in the second quarter of 2025. With stock prices now elevated, investors are setting a high bar for companies to clear in the upcoming earnings season. Unlike last earnings season – marred by fresh uncertainty stemming from newly announced tariffs – investors may be swifter to punish companies that fail …
Blake Anderson
July 7, 2025
What the Last Six Months in Markets May Mean for the Rest of the Year
Monday, June 30, concluded an extraordinary first half for markets. The end of the half is always a good time to look at what’s been happening in markets and think about implications for the second half of the year. Here are some highlights from the first half of the year and what they might tell …
Barry Gilbert
July 3, 2025
Should We Expect Fireworks in July? 🧨🎇🎆🔥
“The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it.” Michelangelo What a wild ride 2025 has been and it is only halfway over! After being down nearly 20% at the lows in April, stocks have staged one …
Ryan Detrick
July 1, 2025
The Energy Behind Artificial Intelligence
The emergence of Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) has triggered one of the largest growth spurts in US electricity demand in decades. Early indicators show some impacts of this already as grid electricity prices are increasing, signaling that electricity demand is growing faster than supply. While the underlying technologies powering AI systems are expected to become significantly …
Blake Anderson
June 30, 2025
Yield and Total Return, Friends or Foes?
Let’s go back to basics (it’s not quite back-to-school time) to discuss a topic that can occasionally cause communication issues for investors of all types. While the yield to maturity on an individual bond is typically the best predictor of total return, as we’ve noted in many of our Market Outlooks, the current yield on …
Grant Engelbart
June 26, 2025
Will Falling Home Prices Wreck Household Balance Sheets?
The Case-Shiller National home price index fell 0.4% month over month in April, the second consecutive month of declines following the 0.3% decline in March. Note that the Case-Shiller index is actually a three-month average, and so the April index prices are a three-month average of February, March, and April. That means the actual monthly …
Sonu Varghese
June 25, 2025
It’s Getting Hot in Here
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of …
Ryan Detrick
June 25, 2025
The Three-Year Itch
“Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.” Humphrey B. Neill The wild ride in 2025 continues, as stocks surprised many and gained 1% on Monday after the US attacked Iran over the weekend, while crude oil declined nearly 14% from the open to the close, one of the largest intraday reversals in history. But is …
Ryan Detrick
June 24, 2025