Investments
Will Falling Home Prices Wreck Household Balance Sheets?
The Case-Shiller National home price index fell 0.4% month over month in April, the second consecutive month of declines following the 0.3% decline in March. Note that the Case-Shiller index is actually a three-month average, and so the April index prices are a three-month average of February, March, and April. That means the actual monthly …
Sonu Varghese
June 25, 2025
It’s Getting Hot in Here
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of …
Ryan Detrick
June 25, 2025
The Three-Year Itch
“Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.” Humphrey B. Neill The wild ride in 2025 continues, as stocks surprised many and gained 1% on Monday after the US attacked Iran over the weekend, while crude oil declined nearly 14% from the open to the close, one of the largest intraday reversals in history. But is …
Ryan Detrick
June 24, 2025
A Roadblock Removed Redux
In November, I wrote A Roadblock Removed to contextualize the rise in Tesla’s stock price and detail a potential regulatory shift that could benefit the company. The regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles (“AVs”) is ambiguous, with many state and local jurisdictions having the right to approve or disallow operators. I detailed the potential for NHTSA, …
Blake Anderson
June 23, 2025
The Fed Stays on The Sidelines, Paralyzed by Tariffs and Who Is Paying Them
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range at their June meeting, as was expected. The most notable change in their official statement was that the Fed believes uncertainty concerning the economic outlook has reduced – but that’s only relative to a couple of months ago (post-Liberation Day). They still believe uncertainty …
Sonu Varghese
June 20, 2025
ETFs and Taxes: A Quick Refresher
Bloomberg reported this week that the number of listed, actively managed ETFs now exceeds passive ETFs for the first time, although assets in active ETFs remain significantly lower. This milestone comes as the “ETF as a share-class structure” gains traction, potentially paving the way for even more active strategies to enter the market. There are …
Grant Engelbart
June 18, 2025
Going with the Flow with Sam Ro
In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam’s background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI. Key …
Ryan Detrick
June 18, 2025
Federal Reserve Preview: Powell and Trump Maintain an Uncomfortable Truce
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow and the market implied odds that they will not cut rates, via CME’s FedWatch tool is 99.83%. (I can’t help but hear “So you’re saying there’s a chance” in my head in reaction, but yes there’s a near zero chance of a cut since the Fed doesn’t …
Barry Gilbert
June 17, 2025
Apple’s Conference Leaves a Sour Taste
Apple hosted their annual World Wide Developers Conference (“WWDC”) last week. The event is a showcase of many software updates and is meant to serve as inspiration for iOS developers to create new App-store offerings. This year’s WWDC featured a host of updates, but largely did not meet investors’ expectations for AI-focused innovations. Key mentions …
Blake Anderson
June 16, 2025
More Chaos, but That Shouldn’t Be a Surprise
Thursday, June 12, has been a tragic and exhausting day. It started with the terrible crash of an Air India flight in India, killing over 250 people—the worst aviation disaster in India since 1996. Then the day ended with Israel striking Iran, targeting their nuclear program and killing several top Iranian military officials (including the …
Sonu Varghese
June 13, 2025
Welcome to the Start of a New Bull Market?
“The more things change, the more they stay the same.” French writer Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr What a run stocks have been on the past two months! We came into this year with everyone all bulled up after back-to-back 20% years, then stocks tanked in historic fashion after Liberation Day, so those same bullish Strategists and …
Ryan Detrick
June 12, 2025
11 Charts That Explain the Housing Strain
The May payroll report showed that labor markets remain OK, at least on the surface. As I wrote in my payroll blog, there’s weakness under the hood, but surface resiliency means the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to stay on pause for a lot longer—unless the unemployment rate really picks up, and then we have …
Sonu Varghese
June 11, 2025