Investments
IPO Markets Regain Momentum
Initial public offerings (“IPOs”) are considered a key indicator of investor risk appetite. Encouragingly, IPO activity across major U.S. exchanged has largely rebounded to long-term average levels. The consistency of recent IPO execution even looks similar to the late 2010’s, when global equity markets sustained years of gains. Notably, post-IPO returns reveal a meaningful divergence …
Blake Anderson
April 7, 2025
A Solid Payroll Report Means the Fed Stays on the Sidelines
The economy created 228,000 jobs in May, well above the 140,000 that was expected by forecasters. Monthly numbers can be noisy (especially since some of the jobs created could be a rebound from lower-than-expected numbers after terrible weather January and February) and so let’s look at the three-month average. That’s running at 152,000, which should …
Sonu Varghese
April 4, 2025
The Tariffs Are a Big Deal and Risks Are Very High
Tariffs are here and in a big, big way, much bigger than anyone expected. And it isn’t really reciprocal tariffs. The calculation of tariffs is based on the trade deficit the US has with each country, and nothing to do with actual tariffs other countries charge on US goods. For example, say a country exports …
Sonu Varghese
April 3, 2025
Tariffs Will Likely Put the Fed in a Tricky Spot
Liberation Day is here, but we’re still waiting to for the exact nature of our liberation. Will it be reciprocal tariffs, with the US reciprocating other countries’ tariff rates on US goods? These will be enormously complicated to implement. Or will it be President Trump’s preferred approach of imposing a blanket 20% universal tariff on …
Sonu Varghese
April 2, 2025
Waving Goodbye to A Tariff-ible Quarter
“It is uncertainty, far more than disaster, that unnerves and weakens markets.” -John Steele Gordon, American writer After serious consideration, we’ve decided to move all of our portfolios into Godiva Chocolate Cheesecake at The Cheesecake Factory, because if you’ve ever had one then you know. Now that I have your attention, April Fool’s Day! Now …
Ryan Detrick
April 1, 2025
A Cautious Consumer
Consumer discretionary stocks are off to a slow start in 2025. Amongst the equal-weight-sector allocations, an equal weight portfolio of all consumer discretionary stocks in the S&P 500 (as proxied by RSPD) has posted the worst return through March 25th. Commentary from several companies in the sector reveals a dynamic business landscape, influenced by the …
Blake Anderson
March 31, 2025
Offense and Defense in 2025
March Madness is a fantastic time of year to talk about playing offense and defense. As we wrote about in our 2025 outlook and have revisited a time or two since, in markets you can play offense with momentum and defense with low volatility. Combining these together in portfolios builds resiliency – something investors have …
Grant Engelbart
March 28, 2025
7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip Back on January 3rd, to mark the swearing in of the 119th Congress, we shared seven risks to our bullish policy outlook. That was still 17 days before inauguration day. Now we’ve seen the new administration’s policies gel …
Barry Gilbert
March 26, 2025
Celebrating Women’s History Month with Lindsey Bell and Debbie Taylor
In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist at Clearonomics, and Debbie Taylor, Managing Partner and Chief Tax Strategist at Carson Wealth, for a special Women’s History Month Livestream. Together, they discuss their careers, recent market trends, and how investors …
Ryan Detrick
March 26, 2025
Takeaways from Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference
Nvidia hosted its annual GPU Technology Conference (“GTC”) this past week, showcasing its latest technology. This event marked the company’s first opportunity to address investor concerns following the DeepSeek-driven drawdown which raised questions about future demand for computing. Nvidia unequivocally painted a bullish picture, emphasizing how large language models (“LLMs”) have evolved significantly in recent …
Blake Anderson
March 25, 2025
Stocks Rarely Peak in February and Five Other Things to Know Right Now
“If everybody is thinking alike, somebody isn’t thinking.” -General George S. Patton Last week, we discussed how the S&P 500 officially moved into a correction, which is down 10% from the February 19th peak. We noted then that most years (even some of the best years) see volatility and scary headlines, with many of those …
Ryan Detrick
March 24, 2025
Women’s History Month: Building Community for Women in Finance
March is Women’s History Month, and we’re celebrating with a special livestream edition of Facts vs Feelings! Hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, will discuss markets, taxes, investing, the economy, and more with some of the best and brightest women leaders in the world of finance. Ryan and …
Ryan Detrick
March 21, 2025