Investments
Consumers Expect Stagflation, But Here’s Why That’s Unlikely
It’s not surprising that consumer sentiment has plunged over the last two months amid all the market volatility, and headlines around tariffs and layoffs (even beyond the federal government). Two popular surveys of consumer sentiment, from the University of Michigan and The Conference Board, have seen sentiment more than reverse all the gains made in …
Sonu Varghese
March 21, 2025
The Fed Is Stuck Waiting, and That’s a Problem
The Federal Reserve (Fed) opted to keep their policy rate unchanged, leaving it at the 4.25-4.5% target range. This was not unexpected, but all eyes were on the Fed’s “dot plot,” which is their Summary of Economic Projections. It’s updated every three months and contains individual member estimates of the federal funds rate over the …
Sonu Varghese
March 20, 2025
Four Reasons Not to Panic and Sell Right Now
“So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?” Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber As I wrote about last week in Houston, We Have A Correction, Now What?, the S&P 500 has been volatile lately and recently moved into a correction (down more than 10%). Today I want to discuss a few more things you should …
Ryan Detrick
March 19, 2025
Correction, How Worried Should We Be?
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the recent market correction, what history tells us about recoveries, and whether investors should be concerned. Plus, they discuss sentiment shifts, the strength of international markets, and what they see next for stocks. Key Takeaways: …
Ryan Detrick
March 19, 2025
Why Germany’s Epic Announcement May Be a Potential Game Changer for the Global Economy & Markets
Over the last month, the market conversation has been so dominated by tariffs that it’s been hard to tune into anything else happening in the global economy. This is not to say that the newly implemented tariffs are insignificant—as I wrote recently, the tariffs are unprecedented and a big deal. But their impact on the …
Sonu Varghese
March 18, 2025
A Less Than Magnificent Year
The Magnificent 7 group of stocks has seen a poor start to 2025. The group entered 2025 with premium valuations, and expectations for premium growth to continue. But earnings growth has only fallen in line with the broader market, and that represents a sharp slowdown compared to the group’s recent performance. Investors may be well …
Blake Anderson
March 17, 2025
Houston, We Have a Correction. Now What?
“Everybody in the world is a long-term investor … until the market goes down.” Peter Lynch, famous fund manager After another big down day on Thursday, stocks officially fell into a correction, with the S&P 500 down more than 10% from the February 19th peak. Although this hasn’t been fun, we can’t say it wasn’t …
Ryan Detrick
March 14, 2025
Using Valuations to Cut Through the Noise
There is never a dull moment in financial markets, which can be both the attraction to and distraction of our industry. The start to 2025 is, of course, no exception. A strong economic backdrop and calm start to the year has given way to headline risk and even more over-analysis of economic data, Fed speak, …
Grant Engelbart
March 13, 2025
Treasuries Playing Defense Again (for Now)
For the second consecutive decline of 5% or more in the S&P 500, long Treasuries have been playing defense, at least so far. Here “playing defense” means a return better than short Treasuries, although over short periods of time that’s usually near zero. I’m using long Treasuries here as a proxy for bonds, because they …
Barry Gilbert
March 12, 2025
Talking Pies, Pi Day & St. Patty’s Day with Warren Pies
Key Takeaways: Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there’s no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong. The Fed’s Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth. Government Spending & Deficits: Large …
Ryan Detrick
March 12, 2025
March Madness
“The stock market is the only place where things go on sale yet everyone runs out of the store screaming.” Old Wall Street saying What is it about March that brings volatility? Yesterday was the worst day of the year for stocks and worries over tariffs and a growing trade war dominate the headlines. Now …
Ryan Detrick
March 11, 2025
Tumbling Technology
The stock price change of technology companies is on pace for the second worst start to a year in the last decade. Sector investment fund returns are notably lagging their recent historical averages even as earnings expectations have so far held up. Additionally, momentum-based correlations have broken down and index-based dispersion has increased, signaling that …
Blake Anderson
March 10, 2025