Investments
OpenAI’s Latest Releases
By Blake Anderson, CFA®, Senior Analyst, Investment OpenAI has recently expanded its suite of AI tools and adjusted its subscription offerings to cater to a diverse user base. The company, with a reported 500 million monthly active users, is taking bold steps to increase monetization of the company’s intelligence products while also adding capabilities. Their …
Blake Anderson
December 23, 2024
Will The Santa Claus Rally Come In 2024? 🎅❄☃🎄🤶
“If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” —Yale Hirsh That Escalated Quickly; Putting Things In Perspective My oh my, this week escalated quickly to quote the great philosopher Ron Burgundy (Anchorman). The S&P 500 sold off nearly 3% on Wednesday and we saw 97% of all stocks in …
Ryan Detrick
December 20, 2024
The Fed Pulls a Grinch
The Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25%-points at their December meeting, taking the federal funds rate to the 4.25-4.5% range. This was expected, but it was completely swept aside. The market reaction should give you a sense of how bad it was: The S&P 500 fell almost 3% on Wednesday (December …
Sonu Varghese
December 19, 2024
A Strategic Approach to Factor Investing
Today’s blog is a follow-up to Carson’s VP, Investment Strategist Grant Engelbart’s insightful recent discussion of factor investing and alpha opportunities, “Enhancing Portfolio Management.” Factors are a theme we regularly return to. Grant also covered factor investing in a piece earlier this year called “Factor Investing 2024,” and our Portfolio Manager Mike Lawrence covered the …
Barry Gilbert
December 18, 2024
Why Inflation Isn’t Sticky
Inflation concerns are widespread, but are they justified? Economic trends suggest that the narrative of persistently high inflation may be overblown. In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the nuances of current inflation data and its implications for investors and …
Ryan Detrick
December 18, 2024
Nine Reasons We Still Believe in a Santa Claus Rally
Stocks have been weak lately, with the Dow recently down eight days in a row and the Russell 1000 Value Index also down 11 days in a row. In fact, the S&P 500 had more stocks down than up for 11 days in a row, the most since 1996. Some of this weakness has been …
Ryan Detrick
December 17, 2024
There’s Still Time to Avoid Capital Gains
Another strong year for stocks means a lot of happy investors, at least until their 1099s are distributed! Higher equity prices and continued outflows from traditional mutual funds spells trouble for impending capital gains payouts. This may be best illustrated by this figure: of the legacy mutual funds at Carson, there are 10 “tax managed” …
Grant Engelbart
December 16, 2024
A Big Unknown for 2025 Is the US Dollar, and That Matters
The dollar has been on a tear since the end of September, and especially post-election. It took a bit of a breather over the Thanksgiving week but swung up again over the last couple of weeks. The dollar is now up over 6% since the end of September (through December 12th). Just before the Thanksgiving …
Sonu Varghese
December 13, 2024
Two Big Clues That Tell Us Inflation Has Normalized
November inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed right along expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.3% and is up 2.7% from last year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.3%, and is up 3.3% year over year. These numbers are clearly over the Fed’s 2% target. Cue the cries …
Sonu Varghese
December 12, 2024
The Drivers of Long-Term Stock Returns
We sometimes get questions about why we think stocks will continue to go up in the long run. That gives me an opportunity to refer back to some of our favorite long-term investing charts that capture our views. Almost exactly a year ago, our Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese wrote a piece called, “This Is …
Barry Gilbert
December 11, 2024
Now the Bears Turn into Bulls?
Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism. What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the …
Ryan Detrick
December 11, 2024
Now the Bears Are Apologizing?
“Any company that has an economist certainly has one employee too many.” Warren Buffett Another bear issued a mea culpa last week. This time it was David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. Rosie, as he is affectionately known, has been steadfastly in the camp that any data has been bad, will lead to trouble, and a …
Ryan Detrick
December 10, 2024