Investments
How To Identify a Recession, and Why It Matters for Investors
Recession calls have increased since the Liberation Day tariff extravaganza, with most economists increasing the odds of a recession in the next 12 months quite significantly relative to odds at the beginning of the year. The Wall Street Journal’s panel of economists raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 45% …
Sonu Varghese
May 9, 2025
The Fed Is Buying Into the Tariff Bull Case, but That Pushes Out Cuts
The Federal Reserve (Fed) didn’t move policy rates at their May meeting, keeping them in the 4.25-4.50% range. This was widely expected, but all eyes (and ears) were on how they would telegraph future moves. Short answer: they didn’t. The only major change in the official post-meeting statement was that risks of higher unemployment and …
Sonu Varghese
May 8, 2025
The Bull and Bear Case for Bonds
Bonds have actually had a good run over the last year (for bonds). The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is up 5.8% trailing year as of yesterday’s close versus 4.9% for the Bloomberg US 1-3 Month Treasury Bill Index. That’s a fair discount to the S&P 500 over the same period (9.7%), but still …
Barry Gilbert
May 7, 2025
Slowing, Not Cracking
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, …
Ryan Detrick
May 7, 2025
About Last Month
“It is human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity.” Jeff Bezos, Executive Chairman and Former CEO, Amazon What an end to April, and May is off to a strong start as well. In fact, the S&P 500 finished higher the last seven days of April, trying the longest win streak to end that month …
Ryan Detrick
May 6, 2025
Under the Hood: Tech Earnings Takeaways
Investors digested results from some of the largest companies in the world this past week. The reports largely met or exceeded expectations, with five of the six largest companies trading higher after their announcements – perhaps reflective of ‘better than feared’ reports. These positive surprises were a welcome relief to investors who may have entered …
Blake Anderson
May 5, 2025
The Labor Market Hasn’t Cracked, but That Means Higher Rates for Longer
The economy created 177,000 jobs in April, above expectations for 138,000 jobs. At the same time, this number can be revised quite a lot. (Job creation in February and March were revised down by a combined 58,000.) This is why the 3-month average is more useful, and right now that’s at 155,000. That’s not great, …
Sonu Varghese
May 2, 2025
How Have Active Managers Navigated 2025?
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett. An apt quote at this part of the year, as we head towards the Berkshire annual shareholder meeting to pay homage to one of the best active managers of all time. The first four months of this year have …
Grant Engelbart
May 1, 2025
Why We Think You Shouldn’t Sell in May
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” Richard Feynman, American theoretical physicist Buckle up, as the trigger points for one of the most well-known investment axioms, “Sell in May and go away,” is nearly here. This gets a ton of play in the media, as …
Ryan Detrick
April 30, 2025
Did the Stock Market Win the Tariff Throwdown?
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market’s strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market. The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and …
Ryan Detrick
April 30, 2025
Market Takeaways for Trump’s Next 100 Days Based on What We Saw in the First 100
Today is Day 100 of the second Trump administration (counting Inauguration Day as Day 1). We’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days, but if you’re a market person you’re aim is always to look ahead, not backwards. Carson’s global macro strategist Sonu Varghese did just that in his recent blog, “What’s Next? The …
Barry Gilbert
April 29, 2025
Healthcare Acquisitions Ramp Up
Acquisition activity in the healthcare sector is picking up pace in 2025. This surge comes amid continued underperformance from large cap pharmaceutical companies and may also point to flaws in their previous allocation of capital—particularly around research and development. The strategic pivot toward acquisitions may signal a broader shift as companies look externally for the …
Blake Anderson
April 28, 2025