Investments
No Recession in Sight for the US Economy, but No Cyclical Acceleration Either
The February employment report was a bit mixed. It didn’t tell us much that is new about the US economy, but that in and of itself is a story, depending on your expectations: If you were expecting near recession-like conditions, we don’t have that If you were expecting GDP growth to be closer to 3% …
Sonu Varghese
March 7, 2025
Ten Questions on Tariffs, the Economy, Markets, and Our Outlook
Ok, tariffs happened. But now what is the big question—for policy, the economy, and obviously, markets. Here are Carson Investment Research’s answer to 10 key questions. One: What tariffs went into effect? At 12:01am on March 4th, new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China went into effect. These included: 25% tariffs on all Canadian …
Sonu Varghese
March 5, 2025
Growth Scare
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the “growth scare” and discuss whether the bull …
Ryan Detrick
March 5, 2025
Wait, Is GDP Growth Really Going To Be Negative in Q1?
Even as the world’s attention last Friday was focused elsewhere, we got a real doozy of a data update in one corner of the economic universe. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Real GDP “Nowcast” for Q1 plunged from 2.3% to -1.5%, and then down to -2.8% after more data on Monday. Yeah, that’s not a typo, …
Sonu Varghese
March 4, 2025
Why We Expect Some Green in March
“Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway Welcome to March and good riddance to February! In the end, February was a choppy and frustrating month, but this wasn’t a big surprise, as we wrote about and discussed all month. Are better times …
Ryan Detrick
March 3, 2025
What’s Next for Crypto?
Digital assets had another great year in 2024, led by strength in Bitcoin and ETF inflows, catalyzed further by the new administration. However, as we enter more volatility in February of 2025, the prospect of higher prices now appears to be in question. Bitcoin hovers around 22% below its all-time high, but other major digital …
Grant Engelbart
February 28, 2025
Nvidia’s Earnings Meet Expectations
Nvidia released its latest earnings report after market close on Wednesday, delivering results that largely met expectations. Despite increased volatility in the stock recently, which included a record one-day market cap loss, the company’s fundamentals appear strong, customer demand remains robust. While investors can never know with certainty how the future unfolds, Nvidia’s latest results …
Blake Anderson
February 27, 2025
Denominator Blindness
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market trends, inflation data, and what’s driving stocks to all-time highs despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and other economic uncertainty. Key Takeaways: Markets at All-Time Highs: Despite concerns about tariffs, …
Ryan Detrick
February 26, 2025
That Escalated Quickly
“Boy, that escalated quickly.” Ron Burgundy of Anchorman This isn’t a surprise They say the stock market takes the escalator up, but the elevator down and the past four days have sure felt like an elevator down. It feels like a long time ago, but exactly one week ago the S&P 500 was at a …
Ryan Detrick
February 26, 2025
Lessons From Buffett: Dividends Are Tax-Inefficient, and Hurts Compounding
“In a very minor way, Berkshire shareholders have participated in the American miracle by foregoing dividends, thereby electing to reinvest rather than consume.” – Warren Buffett, Berkshire Shareholder Letter, 2025 The quote above is from Warren Buffett’s latest missive to Berkshire shareholders, and as usual, it does not miss. There are several nuggets of wisdom …
Sonu Varghese
February 25, 2025
Mighty Mid-Caps
Mid-Cap stocks have had a strong start to 2025. The iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (trading under IWP) has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ETFs so far this year. In fact, the recent surge in this index is reaching historical levels, with concentration in the index at a decade-high. This heightened …
Blake Anderson
February 24, 2025
5 Reasons Why We’re Not Worried about Rising Credit Card Debt
Every quarter the New York Federal Reserve releases its household credit and debt report and we get a flurry of headlines about rising credit card debt, and rising delinquencies. As always with these things, it’s important to maintain some perspective. One: Household Leverage is Actually Reducing Credit card debt rose 3.9% last quarter (Q4 2024) …
Sonu Varghese
February 21, 2025