Investments
The Fed Goes Big: What the Recent Rate Cut Means for Investors
Is the Fed’s latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth? In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve’s significant decision to cut interest rates …
Ryan Detrick
September 25, 2024
The New Record High for Markets Is Not a “Sugar High”
Last week was all about the Federal Reserve (Fed) jump-starting the rate cut cycle with a 0.5%-point cut. But amidst all the commentary around that, it’s easy to forget about what ultimately drives equities: profits. Note that what the Fed did was important even from this perspective. A Fed that is looking to cap the …
Sonu Varghese
September 25, 2024
Six Things to Know About Rate Cuts
“Be yourself. No one can say you’re doing it wrong.” -Charlie Brown The big story last week was the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) cutting interest rates for the first time since March 2020. Sonu Varghese, VP Global Macro Strategist, discussed some of the reasons stocks soared after the Fed cut rates, but today I’ll look …
Ryan Detrick
September 24, 2024
Smarter AI Models are Redefining Accuracy
In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has moved from the fringes of technological advancement to the center stage of innovation. Companies like OpenAI and Microsoft are continually pushing the boundaries, releasing more intelligent, faster, and increasingly accurate AI models. Two such developments that have made headlines include OpenAI’s newest iteration of ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Wave …
Blake Anderson
September 23, 2024
Here’s Why Markets Liked What the Fed Did and Hit a New Record High
Stocks reacted in a fairly neutral way after the Federal Reserve’s historically significant decision to jumpstart the rate cutting cycle with a 0.5%-point cut. But the real follow-through came on the day after the Fed meeting, perhaps after everyone slept on it. The S&P 500 surged 1.7% to close at a new record high on …
Sonu Varghese
September 20, 2024
The Fed’s Got the Back of the Labor Market
Say goodbye to those 5.5% rates! The Federal Reserve (Fed) jump-started their policy pivot by going big at their September meeting, cutting interest rates by 0.50%-points, taking the federal funds rate to the 4.75-5.50% range. This was not entirely unexpected. Traders put the probability of a 0.5%-point move at 63% just prior to the meeting, …
Sonu Varghese
September 19, 2024
Talking Charts: How to Read the Market Like a Pro with Frank Cappelleri
Staying ahead of market volatility requires more than just luck — it demands sharp technical insights and smart risk management. This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group are joined by Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT, Founder, and President at …
Ryan Detrick
September 18, 2024
Doomsayers Have Their New Indicator: The Yield Curve Uninverts
The pandemic and post-pandemic environment has been a breeding ground of economic anomalies born out of deep disruptions and policy extremes that have echoed across the years. That doesn’t mean good economic analysis doesn’t hold true; it does mean that good analysis takes some extra work. You couldn’t just paint by numbers over the last …
Barry Gilbert
September 18, 2024
Three Things To Know About Last Week
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Lenin Last week was Carson’s Excell conference down in Orlando and it was a ton of fun, but a little exhausting as well. I’m glad it is over, but looking back it was such a fun and productive week for …
Ryan Detrick
September 17, 2024
A Summer Swoon in Trendy Tech
Returns in the stock prices of technology companies have cooled as of late, marking a sharp change from the experience of the previous year. Performance to date in the third quarter of 2024 is listed below for the so called ‘Magnificent 7,’ and the data show a significant slowdown compared to recent history. An equal …
Blake Anderson
September 16, 2024
The Potential Impact of a Big Rate Cut (It’s Not Scary!)
Last week I argued that the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to “go big” sooner rather than later by starting their rate cut cycle in September with a 0.5%-point cut. Labor market risks are rising, and the August payroll data wasn’t really comforting from that standpoint. At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that …
Sonu Varghese
September 13, 2024
The Inflation Fight Is Over but Fed Policy Remains Uncertain
We’ve consistently said for several months now that inflation was last year’s problem. The latest consumer price index (CPI) data confirms this. Headline CPI is up 2.5% year over year (y/y) through August, which is the slowest pace in three and half years. Here’s some perspective on how far we’ve come: A year ago (August …
Sonu Varghese
September 12, 2024