Investments
Five Things To Know About December
“To appreciate the beauty of a snowflake it is necessary to stand out in the cold.” Aristotle The final month of 2024 is nearly here and in today’s blog I wanted to take a look at why we think the chance of another strong month to end this record-breaking year is likely. Here are five …
Ryan Detrick
November 27, 2024
Reasons to Be Thankful
Surprising economic growth, falling inflation, and financial wins—what’s not to be thankful for? On this gratitude-filled episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on the moments, milestones, and market trends that make this year one to celebrate. Guest …
Ryan Detrick
November 27, 2024
The Perils of Stock Picking
Being an effective stock picker is a specialized skill that requires a combination of deep knowledge of a company’s business model and prospects, fierce self-discipline, a hard-earned feel for market psychology, and knowledge of portfolio construction to help limit risk. In the end, you need to have an informational advantage that isn’t already “priced in” …
Barry Gilbert
November 26, 2024
What Happens After Back-To-Back 20% Gains?
“Don’t look for it, Taylor. You may not like what you find.” -Dr. Zaius to Taylor (Charleton Heston) at end of Planet of the Apes Many bears are back at it, claiming that because stocks are looking at back-to-back 20% gains then 2025 must be doomed. Unfortunately, all we have to do is look at …
Ryan Detrick
November 25, 2024
This Is Why the Dollar Is Surging, and Why It Could Pose Risks
An underrated story right now is the US dollar, which has appreciated by over 6% since the end of September. A big driver of the dollar is relative growth rates between the US and everyone else. So, the outlook for the dollar really depends on how you think the US economy will do relative to …
Sonu Varghese
November 22, 2024
Nvidia Delivers
Nvidia delivered quarterly results largely in line with expectations. Quarterly revenue of $35.1 billion exceeded the $33.15 billion high end of guidance, earnings per share (“EPS”) of $0.81 exceeded FactSet consensus estimate of $0.75, and guidance for next quarter’s revenue of $36.8 – $38.3 billion bracketed FactSet consensus estimate of $37.1 billion. Many of these …
Blake Anderson
November 21, 2024
Why We Aren’t Permabulls
“Oh, those Carson guys are just permabulls.” Institutional CIO who has been dead wrong for years Are we permabulls? We get this question sometimes and it is a great question. (A permabull is someone who remains bullish on markets no matter what is happening.) On the surface we know that stocks usually go up, so …
Ryan Detrick
November 20, 2024
Will Higher Rates Break The Economy?
With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings? This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy …
Ryan Detrick
November 20, 2024
What May Be Next for Interest Rates
As investors look ahead to the post-election rate environment next year, there are a lot of questions, especially with the recent sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Like 2023, when interest rates started and ended the year in the same place with a whole lot happening in between, interest rates have been on quite …
Barry Gilbert
November 19, 2024
A Roadblock Removed? Tesla’s Recent Run
Since news broke on June 12, 2024, that Tesla shareholders voted to reinstate CEO Elon Musk’s pay package, Tesla stock has returned +85.3% versus a gain of +10.3% for the broader S&P 500 (FactSet data, as of 11/12/2024 closing price). The investor base has clearly been catalyzed with recent events that includes the company’s ‘We, …
Blake Anderson
November 18, 2024
Why We Think Inflation Has Normalized and the Fed Can Cut Rates
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data held no surprises for markets, either to the downside or the upside. Since inflation had already normalized, that means the latest data confirms the pre-existing trend. Headline CPI rose 0.2% in October and is up 2.6% year over year. Core CPI (excluding food and energy), which is typically …
Sonu Varghese
November 14, 2024
The Economic Outlook Looks Pretty Good, and Opportunities Abound – Part 2
“We have two kinds of forecasters, the ones who don’t know and the ones who don’t know they don’t know” – John Kenneth Galbraith In Part 1 of this blog, I discussed a framework for thinking about the economic outlook in 2025. There’s clearly a lot of policy uncertainty ahead. As the incoming Trump …
Sonu Varghese
November 13, 2024