Investments
The Payroll Report Highlights Both Strengths & Weaknesses in the Economy
The economy created just 143,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for a 175,000 increase, and less than half of the gain in December (which was revised up from 256,000 to 307,000). Over the last three months, job growth has averaged about 237,000 jobs, which is really strong. However, the payroll numbers are messy right …
Sonu Varghese
February 7, 2025
Will a Cutback in Government Jobs Crash the Labor Market? We Don’t Think so, and Here’s Why
There’s been a lot of chatter about cutbacks in federal government employment, including “buyout offers” (apparently even at the CIA). The deadline for accepting the buyout is February 6th, and reports suggest anywhere from 20,000-40,000 workers have accepted the offer. Irrespective of how you think about it (good, bad, ugly, or apocalyptic), there’s been some …
Sonu Varghese
February 6, 2025
Facts vs. Feelings Livestream – Talks Tariffs
Watch the Investment Research Team’s timely livestream as they break down President Trump’s weekend announcement of significant tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to be implemented on February 4th. Amid uncertainty over whether these measures will be enforced and how the affected countries might retaliate, Carson’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and VP, Global …
Tori Renwick
February 5, 2025
The Tariff Man is Back
In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could …
Ryan Detrick
February 5, 2025
Welcome to the Worst Month of the Year in a Post-Election Year (and Why American Doesn’t Want the Eagles to Win)
“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” Vince Lombardi First things first, February maybe just started, but it has already seen a great deal of volatility around tariffs. The big question I have is, Should we be surprised? It turns out that February in a post-election year is actually the worst …
Ryan Detrick
February 5, 2025
The Tariff Man Cometh, but What’s the Playbook?
On February 1st, President Trump signed executive orders (EO) imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, effective 12:01am February 4th. The orders included: 25% tariffs on Canada, apart from energy imports (tariffed at 10%) 25% tariffs on Mexico 10% tariffs on China These tariffs applied to all goods and would be over and above existing …
Sonu Varghese
February 4, 2025
Project Stargate
Project Stargate was announced on January 21st, 2025. According to OpenAI, one of the partners in the project, Stargate aims to “invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.”1 The newly created company will have its work cut out for it. Artificial Intelligence (AI) research …
Blake Anderson
February 3, 2025
As Goes January, So Goes the Year? The Bulls Hope So.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Mark Twain An effect widely known as the January Barometer looks at how the S&P 500 does in January and what it may mean for the next 11 months. It is known by …
Ryan Detrick
January 31, 2025
The Fed Hits the Snooze Button, but That Poses Problems
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January 2025 meeting held no surprises. They maintained policy rates within the 4.25-4.50% range and continued to trim their bond portfolio, as expected. However, their official statement did see a small, but notable, change. They did highlight that the unemployment rate has stabilized at low levels, but inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” …
Sonu Varghese
January 30, 2025
Year of the Snake? More Like Year of the Bear
“Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.” -Old Wall Street saying We already had our New Year here in the United States, but the Chinese New Year begins today and with it brings the Year of the Snake. The snake is the sixth of the twelve-year cycle of animals that appear in the Chinese Zodiac. …
Ryan Detrick
January 29, 2025
Is Tech in DeepSeek?
Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical. How do advancements like DeepSeek’s AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist …
Ryan Detrick
January 29, 2025
DeepSeek: Did China Just Eat America’s AI Lunch?
DeepSeek, a small Chinese Artificial Intelligence (AI) startup, shook the AI world last weekend. In short, DeepSeek created an AI model that appears to be as powerful as the existing ones out there. And most importantly, they did it with much less money. DeepSeek’s AI chatbot also soared to the top of the Apple App …
Sonu Varghese
January 28, 2025