Investments
Doomsayers Have Their New Indicator: The Yield Curve Uninverts
The pandemic and post-pandemic environment has been a breeding ground of economic anomalies born out of deep disruptions and policy extremes that have echoed across the years. That doesn’t mean good economic analysis doesn’t hold true; it does mean that good analysis takes some extra work. You couldn’t just paint by numbers over the last …
Barry Gilbert
September 18, 2024
Three Things To Know About Last Week
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Lenin Last week was Carson’s Excell conference down in Orlando and it was a ton of fun, but a little exhausting as well. I’m glad it is over, but looking back it was such a fun and productive week for …
Ryan Detrick
September 17, 2024
A Summer Swoon in Trendy Tech
Returns in the stock prices of technology companies have cooled as of late, marking a sharp change from the experience of the previous year. Performance to date in the third quarter of 2024 is listed below for the so called ‘Magnificent 7,’ and the data show a significant slowdown compared to recent history. An equal …
Blake Anderson
September 16, 2024
The Potential Impact of a Big Rate Cut (It’s Not Scary!)
Last week I argued that the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to “go big” sooner rather than later by starting their rate cut cycle in September with a 0.5%-point cut. Labor market risks are rising, and the August payroll data wasn’t really comforting from that standpoint. At the same time, the latest inflation data showed that …
Sonu Varghese
September 13, 2024
The Inflation Fight Is Over but Fed Policy Remains Uncertain
We’ve consistently said for several months now that inflation was last year’s problem. The latest consumer price index (CPI) data confirms this. Headline CPI is up 2.5% year over year (y/y) through August, which is the slowest pace in three and half years. Here’s some perspective on how far we’ve come: A year ago (August …
Sonu Varghese
September 12, 2024
Talking With Ed Clissold at Excell
“The aim is to make money, not be right.” -Ned Davis, founder of Ned Davis Research Hello from Orlando! We are all here for our annual Excell conference and it has been a ton of fun. One of the best parts about this conference is our number of amazing guests. Well, yesterday we were …
Ryan Detrick
September 11, 2024
Celebrating Bull Markets and Episode 100 with Tom Lee
Tune in for our centennial celebration! In this special milestone episode, we’re celebrating the 100th episode of Facts vs Feelings with a live audience and special guest Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Together with hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global …
Ryan Detrick
September 11, 2024
Is It Too Late to Buy Bonds?
The Federal Reserve has done all but carve in stone a September interest rate cut – market expectations are at 100% (70% for 25bps and 30% for 50bps). The broad bond market has been higher four months in a row as investors pile in ahead of cuts, pushing interest rates below 4% across maturities from …
Grant Engelbart
September 10, 2024
How to Invest in AI: A Beginner’s Guide
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer just a futuristic concept; it’s a driving force behind significant advancements across industries. From healthcare to finance, automotive to retail, AI is transforming businesses’ operations, making it an attractive investment opportunity. If you want to capitalize on this revolutionary technology, here’s a beginner’s guide to investing in AI. Why …
Carson Group
September 9, 2024
Let’s Not Sugar Coat It – Risks Are Rising
The August payroll report was kind of ok on the face of it. Payrolls grew by 142,000 in August, below expectations for a 165,000 increase but these things are noisy. The unemployment rate also declined from 4.3% to 4.2%, which is welcome. However, read one step beyond headlines and it’s fairly clear the labor market …
Sonu Varghese
September 6, 2024
Why the Fed Needs to Go Big, Sooner Rather Than Later
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to start the rate cut cycle in September. In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Powell explicitly said that the “time has come for policy to adjust.” In fact, minutes from the last Fed meeting in July indicated that some members thought the committee should have actually reduced rates …
Sonu Varghese
September 5, 2024
Nvidia Misses a High Bar
Investors digested Nvidia’s second quarter results last week. The company fell short of high expectations with the stock trading -6% the day after. However, it’s results are still best in class with revenue growing 122% year over year and adjusted EPS growing 153% year over year, according to company data. Heading into the release of …
Blake Anderson
September 4, 2024