Investments
How We’re Positioning Portfolios in a High Interest Rate Environment
It’s been a cliché to say interest rates are going to be higher for longer, especially with markets pulling back expectations for rates cuts quite significantly over the last 4 months, thanks to hotter than expected inflation data. Our team had always been in the camp that we were unlikely to see more than 0.75%-points …
Sonu Varghese
May 17, 2024
This Is Why We’re (Still) Not Worried About an Inflation Resurgence
There’s no question that the inflation data in the first quarter was uncomfortably hot. But as we highlighted over the past several months, there were good reasons not to panic about another sustained upswing in inflation. I wrote about this when the January, February, and March consumer price index (CPI) reports were released. It was …
Sonu Varghese
May 16, 2024
Why We Believe Rates Will Be Higher for Longer and What It Means for Bond Investors
“We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell The Fed is likely underestimating the neutral level of the fed funds rate, which it had at 2.6% in its last summary of economic projections, and will probably need to revise it higher. We believe the Fed’s neutral rate is …
Barry Gilbert
May 15, 2024
Talking About the Future of Carson Group with Burt White
Discover the vision and strategy behind Carson Group’s evolution as Burt White steps into the role of CEO! In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Burt White, CEO at Carson Group, to explore the company’s direction under his …
Ryan Detrick
May 15, 2024
The Bears Are Back, Why That’s a Good Thing
“Even a broken clock is right twice a day.” Some well-known bears are back in the news, with their usual dour predictions, from a recession coming soon to an outright 65% market crash. You can read more about their calls here, but we’ve been hearing these same things for years now and been pushing …
Ryan Detrick
May 14, 2024
AIs on the Prize: Unleashing the Power of AI’s Sight
Breakthroughs in computing power have bestowed upon computers the remarkable ability to “see.” A transformative development that not only encompasses the capacity to recognize and interpret images but also to generate entirely new visual content. Previously, computers could only index images based on textual descriptions provided by humans. For instance, an image might be labeled …
Carson Group
May 13, 2024
Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy
We recently got a couple of softer than expected economic report cards – Q1 GDP growth and the April payroll report – and suddenly we’re hearing more about an impending recession. In fact, the combination of these reports with hotter than expected inflation in Q1, has raised chatter about the dreaded “stagflation” scenario, i.e. low …
Sonu Varghese
May 10, 2024
Talking About Everything Under the Sun with Eddy Elfenbein
The art of stock picking is a skill that can lead to significant rewards for those who master it. How does one sift through the noise to identify undervalued gems? What does it take to maintain a long-term perspective in a market driven by short-term sentiments? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at …
Ryan Detrick
May 8, 2024
Six Reasons This Bull Market Is Alive and Well
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” -Dr. Seuss 2024 came out swinging, with the S&P 500 up more than 10% in the first quarter on the heels of adding more than 11% in the fourth quarter of ’23. Back-to-back double-digit quarters are quite rare, but the good news is they …
Ryan Detrick
May 7, 2024
Nvidia’s Golden Tickets: Amazon, Microsoft, Google Amplify AI Investments
Six of the magnificent seven stocks have reported earnings: Apple, Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. They are buzzing about the seventh, Nvidia. Companies are scrambling to get their hands on Nvidia’s computing chips as if they were Wonka Bars that might have golden tickets. They are spending enormous sums of money to harness AI’s …
Carson Group
May 6, 2024
The April Employment Report Tells Us the Economy Is Strong, But Not Red Hot
The April employment report was the first one in months that went well against market expectations. Three blockbuster payroll reports in Q1 had conditioned sentiment towards expecting more of the same, but instead we got something less blockbuster(y). Payrolls grew 175,000 in April — below expectations of 240,000 and lower than the red hot Q1 …
Sonu Varghese
May 3, 2024
Powell and the Fed Keep Their Eye on the Big Picture
The big picture, coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is that inflation has eased considerably since last year, but it remains elevated. As a result, they’re choosing to maintain policy rates where they are (in the 5.25-5.50% range). At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell believes the disinflation process …
Sonu Varghese
May 2, 2024