Investments
A Momentous Year, but 1968 Redux? Maybe Not
President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, although the endorsement does not necessarily mean she will win the nomination. The change in the Democratic ticket does not change our fundamental view of the election, which we discussed at length in our recently …
Sonu Varghese
July 22, 2024
Election Update: Will He Stay or Will He Go?
The 2024 Republican National Convention ended on Thursday with former President Donald Trump’s acceptance of his party’s nomination. We also can’t ignore the other events in the last several weeks, including the contemptable attempt on former President Trump’s life and the ongoing uncertainty about President Joe Biden’s candidacy following his poor debate performance on June …
Barry Gilbert
July 19, 2024
Three Big Things That Are Happening in the US Economy
The US economy mostly runs on the back of household consumption, and so the manufacturing sector is usually bit of an afterthought. Though its salience has increased recently amid the 2024 presidential election campaign, and especially former President’s Trump’s preference for a weaker dollar to boost the export sector. Still, the headline news from the …
Sonu Varghese
July 18, 2024
7 Reasons the Times Are A-Changin’ for Small Caps
“You’re killin’ me, Smalls!” -Ham Porter in The Sandlot We’ve liked small caps all year and we’ll be the first to admit they’ve been frustrating. But the times, they are a-changin’! I will share a lot of charts and tables (in no particular order) as to why we think this underloved, underappreciated, and underowned area …
Ryan Detrick
July 17, 2024
Inflation is Last Year’s Problem
Inflation is no longer the primary concern for investors, as market dynamics begin to shift and new opportunities arise. How do recent inflation trends impact market behavior? What are the implications of the recent rally in small caps, and how do geopolitical events influence market reactions? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at …
Ryan Detrick
July 17, 2024
Global Investing in the Second Half
We cover a lot of ground in our 2024 Midyear Outlook, but one area worth diving into more is non-US equities. Over the past 15 years, international stocks have only outperformed the U.S. stock market in 12.5% of rolling 12-month periods, not exactly compelling! This year has not started off any different, with the S&P …
Grant Engelbart
July 16, 2024
Under the Hood: Q2 2024 Earnings Kickoff – JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup
As we kickoff the second quarter earnings season, the market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism. The impressive 16% year-to-date gain in the market has left investors tempering their expectations for the back half of the year, preparing for potential volatility. Concerns about market concentration and other emerging issues are balanced by the excitement surrounding …
Carson Group
July 15, 2024
Inflation Is Last Year’s Problem and Stocks Love It
In my opinion, the June inflation report was picture perfect. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% in June, which was below expectations. Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose just 0.1%. These were below expectations, and combined with April and May data, reverses the “heat” we saw in the …
Sonu Varghese
July 12, 2024
Carson Investment Research Releases Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize
Carson Investment Research has released its Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize. It’s been quite a year so far, with continued job market strength (although with some slowing), strong earnings growth, and stock gains that surprised many to the upside, outpacing even our out-of-consensus views for continued market strength. As we put together the …
Barry Gilbert
July 10, 2024
Here’s Our Midyear Outlook
Carson’s midyear outlook “Eyes on The Prize” is out now! How do you balance immediate market reactions with overarching economic indicators? What strategies can help investors stay focused amidst market noise? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into their …
Ryan Detrick
July 10, 2024
Save the Date for Our Midyear Outlook Webinar
The stock market is off to a strong start in 2024, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 for the first time. The economic backdrop has helped too, thanks to a healthy employment picture. But even with those tailwinds, questions about the economy and the markets remain as we head into the second half …
Carson Group
July 10, 2024
Don’t Miss the Best Years of the Market and Lock into Poor Outcomes
The stock market has been on a tear for more than 18 months now, with the S&P 500 up 44% from December 31, 2022 to July 8, 2024. We’ve consistently maintained that momentum begets momentum, and my colleague, Ryan Detrick, has written time and again as to why there’s more than enough reason to be …
Sonu Varghese
July 9, 2024