Investments
American Consumers: Have Money, Will Spend
“American Consumers: Have money, will spend“ That, in a nutshell, is the story of the economy right now. Retail sales and food services surged 3% in January, making a mockery of expectations for a 1.7% gain. This is the largest monthly increase since March 2021, but that came on the back of stimulus checks. So …
Sonu Varghese
February 16, 2023
Inflation Progress Stalls as the Economy Accelerates
January inflation data hit the nose on expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.5% and is up 6.4% year-over-year, while core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.4% and is up 5.6% year-over-year. The fact that inflation is coming in at expectations is in and of itself a victory. That’s a sharp contrast to last year when inflation …
Sonu Varghese
February 15, 2023
Time Is Your BFF When It Comes to Investing
“You can learn a lot by looking.” Yogi Berra Did you know that the S&P 500 is up about a coinflip of the time on any one day? That’s right, since 1950, the S&P 500 has closed green 53.0% of the time. So the secret that nearly everyone knows but few uses to their advantage …
Ryan Detrick
February 14, 2023
8 Principles of Equities
The stock market is many things: It is the greatest wealth creator known to humanity It funds some of the most innovative companies in the world It changes lives It is intensely competitive, humbling even the sharpest minds There are many ways and styles to navigate this beautiful yet treacherous terrain. One is not always …
Carson Research
February 13, 2023
The Tech Layoffs in Perspective
Putting the Tech layoff announcements in perspective It’s hard to get away from all the headlines about layoffs in the Technology sector these days. The most recent was Yahoo, which announced they were laying off 20% of its workforce, about 1,600 people. The firm, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, Inc., tracks layoff announcements and their most …
Sonu Varghese
February 10, 2023
Carson Investment Research “House Views”: Blending Data, Perspectives, and Narrative
We here at the Carson Investment Research Team regularly update our “House Views” on the markets, and specifically various asset classes that make up the core of our portfolios. These views are the foundation of our active asset allocation recommendations and form the basis of decisions we make while managing various portfolios on the Carson …
Sonu Varghese
February 9, 2023
Do Stocks Want the Eagles or Chiefs to Win?
“Baseball is 90% mental, the other half physical.” Yogi Berra First things first, don’t ever invest based on who wins the Super Bowl. Or the coin toss, or how bad the refs will be, etc. With that out of the way, it is Super Bowl season and that means it is time to talk about …
Ryan Detrick
February 8, 2023
Five Clues This Isn’t Just a Bear Market Rally
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” John Maynard Keynes Stocks are off to a roaring start to 2023, which has many claiming this is just a bear market rally and one that will likely end with new lows. Carson Investment Research has quietly been taking the other side …
Ryan Detrick
February 7, 2023
Carson Research’s Weekly Earnings Update February 6th
“The Waiting” We made Tom Petty’s 1981 classic “The Waiting” our theme song for this earnings season as investors are seeking the direction of earnings and the economy amidst strong cross currents. When writing the song, Petty noted that he got the chorus right away, along with the song’s guitar riff. However, he said the …
Carson Research
February 6, 2023
Boom Goes the Labor Market
Sometimes a meme can convey a white paper’s worth of sentiment within a single picture; that’s why they spread faster than the news sometimes. so, let’s keep it simple: The economy created 517,000 jobs in January, well above expectations for a slowdown to 175,000. The unemployment rate is at 3.4%, the lowest level since …
Sonu Varghese
February 3, 2023
The Fed Downshifts and Shows Flexibility
This week, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%, taking the federal funds rate to the 4.50-4.75% range. This is the slowest pace of increase since last March and a welcome downshift after the aggressive pace we saw last year. They also said that ongoing interest rate increases will be appropriate to return inflation to …
Sonu Varghese
February 2, 2023
The Trifecta of Bullish
As we noted yesterday, 2023 is off to a great start for stocks, especially when compared with what we saw in 2022. Well, here’s another potentially bullish development that just triggered. I call it the Trifecta of Bullishness. Yes, I made it up, but I like it. Stocks were up nicely in January, we know …
Ryan Detrick
February 1, 2023