In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.
Key Takeaways:
- Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.
- Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.
- Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.
- Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.
- The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.
- Easing Trade Tensions:S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.
- Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.
DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: Youtube Livestream
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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