A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.
In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.
The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.
If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.
Jump to:
0:02 — Welcome and Guest Introduction
2:05 — Rory’s Path into Oil Analysis
6:09 — Strait of Hormuz Flow Basics
10:20 — Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins
20:50 — The Double Blockade Explained
27:20 — Retaliation Risks and LNG Targets
29:52 — Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction
33:20 — How Oil Prices Went Negative
36:56 — Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation
50:08 — Why Oil and Stocks Look Complacent
57:22 — Where to Follow Rory and Closing
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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