Barry Gilbert
Carson Investment Research Presents Its Midyear Outlook 2025: Uncharted Waters
The Carson Investment Team was proud to release our Midyear Outlook 2025: Uncharted Waters this morning. Few would have thought at the April 8 lows, with the S&P 500 down nearly 20%, that markets would make such a furious comeback. Yet here we sit in early July with the S&P 500 at a total return …
Barry Gilbert
July 11, 2025
What the Last Six Months in Markets May Mean for the Rest of the Year
Monday, June 30, concluded an extraordinary first half for markets. The end of the half is always a good time to look at what’s been happening in markets and think about implications for the second half of the year. Here are some highlights from the first half of the year and what they might tell …
Barry Gilbert
July 3, 2025
Federal Reserve Preview: Powell and Trump Maintain an Uncomfortable Truce
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow and the market implied odds that they will not cut rates, via CME’s FedWatch tool is 99.83%. (I can’t help but hear “So you’re saying there’s a chance” in my head in reaction, but yes there’s a near zero chance of a cut since the Fed doesn’t …
Barry Gilbert
June 17, 2025
3 Takeaways from a Near-Bear Market
It may be a little early to do a post-mortem on the February 19 – April 8, 2025 near-bear market, but maybe it’s not too early to find perspective that we didn’t have “in the moment.” Despite the unusual driver of this particular near-bear market, really just a single actor (who also gets credit for …
Barry Gilbert
May 14, 2025
The Bull and Bear Case for Bonds
Bonds have actually had a good run over the last year (for bonds). The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is up 5.8% trailing year as of yesterday’s close versus 4.9% for the Bloomberg US 1-3 Month Treasury Bill Index. That’s a fair discount to the S&P 500 over the same period (9.7%), but still …
Barry Gilbert
May 7, 2025
Market Takeaways for Trump’s Next 100 Days Based on What We Saw in the First 100
Today is Day 100 of the second Trump administration (counting Inauguration Day as Day 1). We’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days, but if you’re a market person you’re aim is always to look ahead, not backwards. Carson’s global macro strategist Sonu Varghese did just that in his recent blog, “What’s Next? The …
Barry Gilbert
April 29, 2025
3 Thoughts on Trade and the Market Reaction
Let’s Keep It Simple Sometimes I find it helpful when I think through a problem to state the obvious. So here it goes. Stating the obvious when it comes to trade, the main reason the US has a net trade deficit with the rest of the world is because we consume more than we produce …
Barry Gilbert
April 23, 2025
7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip Back on January 3rd, to mark the swearing in of the 119th Congress, we shared seven risks to our bullish policy outlook. That was still 17 days before inauguration day. Now we’ve seen the new administration’s policies gel …
Barry Gilbert
March 26, 2025
Treasuries Playing Defense Again (for Now)
For the second consecutive decline of 5% or more in the S&P 500, long Treasuries have been playing defense, at least so far. Here “playing defense” means a return better than short Treasuries, although over short periods of time that’s usually near zero. I’m using long Treasuries here as a proxy for bonds, because they …
Barry Gilbert
March 12, 2025
Animal Spirits Are Flagging, but There’s Plenty of Time to Get Back on Track
Let’s get it on the table. Of all the charts that raise concerns for me about the economy right now, despite a still solid base case, the one below worries me the most. Not for what it represents in itself but for what it says about where we are in the cycle in general. The …
Barry Gilbert
February 20, 2025