Grant Engelbart
Shifting Sectors under the Surface
Rising market volatility tends to lead to changes under the surface of markets, even if the headline index performance remains fairly range-bound. This is especially true today, as volatility has been steadily rising since the beginning of the year, and market leadership continues to shift. Much of the prior year’s leadership has sold off, while …
Grant Engelbart
March 24, 2026
Back to the Real World
A resounding, and sometimes frustrating, feature of markets is that leadership change is inevitable over any period of time studied. The “A.I. Trade” has been prevalent for the past couple of years, absent some blips here and there (DeepSeek, Liberation Day, etc). In some ways, the A.I. trade has started turning upon itself – previous …
Grant Engelbart
March 5, 2026
Is it Still (Crypto) Winter?
Like any good Midwesterner, the weather is top of mind most of the time, especially in the depths of winter. Like the stock market, there is no such thing as experiencing average temperature – just a combination of above-average and below-average. Right now, many of us are experiencing above-average temperatures and likely our first ‘false …
Grant Engelbart
February 11, 2026
New Year, Same Principal: Diversification
2026 is off and running, with an action-packed January and a further reminder that the oldest trick in the investing book still applies. That “trick” is, of course, diversification, which proved resilient in 2025 as we reminded investors in our 2026 Market Outlook. Now is an ideal time to consider the makeup and risk profile …
Grant Engelbart
January 30, 2026
Earnings Remain in the Driver’s Seat
Wars, unemployment, the Fed…. Greenland — noise is and always will be abundant in financial markets. This noise isn’t all bad, and it’s our job to parse through it for you, but as we say time and time again, what really matters for stocks is earnings. Ultimately, a lot of factors affect earnings, but the …
Grant Engelbart
January 15, 2026
Beware! Your Old Mutual Funds Are About to Pay Capital Gains
The holidays are here, and so is the gift that keeps on giving. Traditional mutual funds have enjoyed three strong years of equity market returns and an even longer period of consistent outflows. Taken together, that is a recipe — as good as grandma’s pumpkin pie — for another banner year for capital gains distributions. …
Grant Engelbart
December 9, 2025
Where Is the Value?
The recent drawdown from all-time highs (-5% intraday at the time of this writing) has done nothing to tarnish a great year for broad equity markets. With any strong run in the market, examining where valuations end up as a result is a worthwhile exercise. Often, price appreciation is warranted on the back of strong …
Grant Engelbart
November 19, 2025
Has Diversification Worked in 2025?
We have come a long way since I last published a Carson Quilt chart, and the situation at that time for market returns was immensely different. Commodities were leading the way, up just 2.1% for the year, followed by fixed income, illustrating how the diversifying parts of a portfolio can be beneficial when the going …
Grant Engelbart
November 5, 2025
Strengthening Portfolios with Less Understood Tools
Through generations of boom and bust in investing—granted all boom for those who think long term—there are terms and phrases that elicit positive and negative emotions. Perhaps the most famous and most widely cited is “this time is different” invoked during nearly every financial bubble or subsequent crisis. Don’t worry—I am not going to utter …
Grant Engelbart
October 9, 2025
ETF as a Share Class: Progress!
Earlier this week, the SEC provided guidance that Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) would be granted ‘relief’ to offer an ETF share class of their mutual funds. This tool has existed for decades but was exclusive to Vanguard until its patent expired in 2023. Since then, more than 70 firms have applied for the use of …
Grant Engelbart
October 2, 2025