Omaha, Neb. – July 10, 2025 –Carson Group forecasts continued stock gains and improved sentiment in the second half of 2025, despite policy uncertainty. The company notes in its Midyear Market Outlook ’25: “Uncharted Waters,” that the hard data does not point to a recession and moderation on tariffs and deficit-financed tax relief may create a meaningful cushion against a downturn. At the same time, we are still navigating uncharted territory.
“Following April’s tariff drama when Liberation Day nearly caused a bear market and sparked extreme volatility and fear, stocks came soaring back in one of the largest reversals ever, suggesting the lows for 2025 are likely behind us and better times could be coming for investors,” said Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. “While 2025 has already been a wild ride—and we should still prepare for more ups and downs—we see reasons to expect this bull market to continue.”
Although the Carson Group Investment Research team points out that markets and the economy are not meeting their full potential, stocks and bonds have weathered the storm, and Carson is watching these corrections with a close eye. Bonds remain a core holding in Carson’s allocations, but the firm contends that in uncertain times, creating well-diversified, robust portfolios is key.
“There is significant policy uncertainty now, with the inflationary impact of tariffs still unclear and interest rate cuts by the Fed pushed further away,” adds Sonu Varghese, Ph.D., VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group. “However, we predict the economy will still grow at a pace that can support continued corporate profit growth, and at the end of the day, that’s what markets care about. We still favor stocks over bonds, but in uncertain times, we are as focused on creating well-diversified, robust portfolios that includes some exposure to gold and managed futures, select equity factor exposure and even international diversification.”
Additional takeaways from the midyear outlook include:
- Carson remains overweight equities with a baseline target S&P 500 total return of 12- 15% for 2025 and expects to see the benefits from a globally diversified portfolio, including strategies that take advantage of momentum and low volatility stocks.
- Carson believes that tariffs will keep the Fed on pause for longer as rates haven’t moved from the 4.25-4.50% range this year. The Fed has noted that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, but they will likely prioritize taming inflation for the rest of the year.
- Carson notes the bull market is still young. At 31 months old, it’s less than half the average bull market length of 67 months. As bull markets tend to carry their momentum forward, Carson projects that this one might last longer than expected.
Carson Group Investment Research believes in strategic long-term decision making. It’s important when making tactical investing decisions to first, do no harm. The Midyear Market Outlook ’25 is a general guide for investors to help them achieve their long-term financial goals and focus on the real prize—living a life of freedom and purpose.
Related video: In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025.
About Carson Group
Headquartered in Omaha, Neb., Carson Group serves financial advisors and investors through its three businesses — Carson Wealth, Carson Coaching and Carson Partners. Carson Group has created an ecosystem dedicated to helping financial advisors unleash the full potential of their firms by providing marketing, compliance, technology, investment strategies, succession planning, M&A support and coaching. The company currently manages more than $42 billion* in AUM and serves more than 54,000 families among its advisor network of 150+ partner offices, including 50+ Carson Wealth locations. For more information, visit www.carsongroup.com.
Carson is a dba of CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services are offered through CWM, LLC. CWM, LLC is a subsidiary of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. AUM amount is based on total assets under Carson Group Holdings, LLC, which include CWM, LLC and Northwest Capital Management, Inc.