Investments
Animal Spirits Are Flagging, but There’s Plenty of Time to Get Back on Track
Let’s get it on the table. Of all the charts that raise concerns for me about the economy right now, despite a still solid base case, the one below worries me the most. Not for what it represents in itself but for what it says about where we are in the cycle in general. The …
Barry Gilbert
February 20, 2025
Eggscellent Inflation or Not
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 is near an …
Ryan Detrick
February 19, 2025
Why This Valentine’s Day Wasn’t Red, It Was Green
“There are no bad assets, only bad prices.” Howard Marks, Co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management As of last Friday, the S&P 500 was only 0.07% away from yet another new all-time high. It is up a very solid 4.0% year to date, after gaining 23% last year and 24% in 2023. (Both were over 25% …
Ryan Detrick
February 18, 2025
DC, We Have a Problem
Over the last two years, markets have been able to tune out a pretty dour national mood, with the S&P 500 gaining 25%+ in 2023 and 2024. In fact, real GDP growth clocked in at 2.9% annualized over the last two years, above the pre-pandemic trend. Sentiment was downbeat, but this didn’t really crimp consumer …
Sonu Varghese
February 13, 2025
Besides Tariffs, What Else Scares Us
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the …
Ryan Detrick
February 12, 2025
Five Worries We Have That Aren’t Tariffs
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” -Dr. Seuss Yes, we’ve remained in the bullish camp for more than two years now and continue to expect 2025 to see stock gains between 12-15%, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have worries. Of course, like everyone else, tariffs are indeed a big …
Ryan Detrick
February 11, 2025
Under the Hood: Technology Earnings Conclude
Investors digested results from six of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in the past two weeks. After A Magnificent Year, it is time for the companies to deliver the rise in earnings to support their lofty stock prices. Unfortunately, only one company, Meta Platforms, shows positive performance since reporting. This stock price performance for the group reflects …
Blake Anderson
February 10, 2025
The Payroll Report Highlights Both Strengths & Weaknesses in the Economy
The economy created just 143,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for a 175,000 increase, and less than half of the gain in December (which was revised up from 256,000 to 307,000). Over the last three months, job growth has averaged about 237,000 jobs, which is really strong. However, the payroll numbers are messy right …
Sonu Varghese
February 7, 2025
Will a Cutback in Government Jobs Crash the Labor Market? We Don’t Think so, and Here’s Why
There’s been a lot of chatter about cutbacks in federal government employment, including “buyout offers” (apparently even at the CIA). The deadline for accepting the buyout is February 6th, and reports suggest anywhere from 20,000-40,000 workers have accepted the offer. Irrespective of how you think about it (good, bad, ugly, or apocalyptic), there’s been some …
Sonu Varghese
February 6, 2025
Facts vs. Feelings Livestream – Talks Tariffs
Watch the Investment Research Team’s timely livestream as they break down President Trump’s weekend announcement of significant tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to be implemented on February 4th. Amid uncertainty over whether these measures will be enforced and how the affected countries might retaliate, Carson’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and VP, Global …
Tori Renwick
February 5, 2025
The Tariff Man is Back
In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could …
Ryan Detrick
February 5, 2025
Welcome to the Worst Month of the Year in a Post-Election Year (and Why American Doesn’t Want the Eagles to Win)
“The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.” Vince Lombardi First things first, February maybe just started, but it has already seen a great deal of volatility around tariffs. The big question I have is, Should we be surprised? It turns out that February in a post-election year is actually the worst …
Ryan Detrick
February 5, 2025