Investments
A Big Unknown for 2025 Is the US Dollar, and That Matters
The dollar has been on a tear since the end of September, and especially post-election. It took a bit of a breather over the Thanksgiving week but swung up again over the last couple of weeks. The dollar is now up over 6% since the end of September (through December 12th). Just before the Thanksgiving …
Sonu Varghese
December 13, 2024
Two Big Clues That Tell Us Inflation Has Normalized
November inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed right along expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.3% and is up 2.7% from last year. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.3%, and is up 3.3% year over year. These numbers are clearly over the Fed’s 2% target. Cue the cries …
Sonu Varghese
December 12, 2024
The Drivers of Long-Term Stock Returns
We sometimes get questions about why we think stocks will continue to go up in the long run. That gives me an opportunity to refer back to some of our favorite long-term investing charts that capture our views. Almost exactly a year ago, our Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese wrote a piece called, “This Is …
Barry Gilbert
December 11, 2024
Now the Bears Turn into Bulls?
Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism. What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the …
Ryan Detrick
December 11, 2024
Now the Bears Are Apologizing?
“Any company that has an economist certainly has one employee too many.” Warren Buffett Another bear issued a mea culpa last week. This time it was David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. Rosie, as he is affectionately known, has been steadfastly in the camp that any data has been bad, will lead to trouble, and a …
Ryan Detrick
December 10, 2024
Under the Hood: Surging Software
The iShares Expanded Technology Software Sector ETF (trading under IGV) has recorded a quarter-to-date gain of +21.5% as of Thursday’s close (FactSet data). The software-focused ETF is trouncing other broader ETFs over this period. It’s a welcome relief for software and technology-focused investors compared to earlier in the year, with the ETF seeing a gain …
Blake Anderson
December 9, 2024
The Labor Market Is in a Reasonably Good Place, but There Are Risks
The November payroll report was going to be a tricky one to parse because of a bounce back from hurricane effects (which pulled down October payrolls) and the resolution of the strike at Boeing. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October …
Sonu Varghese
December 6, 2024
A Fed Policy Error Is a Big Risk for 2025
Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, was quite upbeat about recent economic data during a moderated conversation with the New York Times Dealbook. He noted that the since the Fed’s September meeting, growth has improved, while downside risks to the labor market have declined. At the same time inflation has come in a little higher. As …
Sonu Varghese
December 5, 2024
Enhancing Portfolio Management
Factors The world of investment product has evolved in many ways over the years, and that evolution has seemingly accelerated more recently. There are nearly 4,000 U.S. exchange-traded products, each with their own index or objective (for better or worse), this is on top of tens of thousands of traditional mutual funds. It can be …
Grant Engelbart
December 4, 2024
3 Things We Are Worried About
Are today’s markets walking a tightrope? Balancing optimism with caution, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are once again joined by Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, to tackle three key market concerns in this thought-provoking episode of Facts vs. Feelings. They examine …
Ryan Detrick
December 4, 2024
Why December Will Probably Be Strong and a Few More Random Thoughts
“To be an investor is to be an optimist.” Jason Zweig, writer for the Wall Street Journal I touched a lot on why more strength is expected in December in Five Things To Know About December, but I wanted to add a few more things today. As I noted last week, when the S&P …
Ryan Detrick
December 3, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway – The Newest Trillionaire
Berkshire Hathaway’s market capitalization stands at $1,032,347,000,000 (FactSet data) as of Tuesday’s close. It is the newest addition to one of the most exclusive clubs in the world – the Trillionaire Club. Notably, it is the only financial stock so far to gain entry to this club, whose membership is largely populated by technology-related stocks. …
Blake Anderson
December 2, 2024