Investments
Bonds Just Finished Their Roughest Three-Month Seasonal Period
In yesterday’s blog, our chief market strategist Ryan Detrick took a look at “Sell in May and go away” and provided a lot of important insight on what it may mean in current market context. While we’re entering a period of historical seasonal weakness, the seasonals alone aren’t strong enough to drive a change in …
Barry Gilbert
May 1, 2024
Buy in May and Stay
Staying on top of market trends and reviewing investment strategies is crucial for investors looking to optimize their portfolios. What does May look like historically when we look back on previous years? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the …
Ryan Detrick
May 1, 2024
Buy In May and Stay? At Least in an Election Year
“Spring is nature’s way of saying, ‘Let’s party!'” – Robin Williams Buckle up, as the trigger points for one of the most well-known investment axioms, “Sell in May and go away,” is nearly here. This gets a ton of play in the media, as the six months starting in May are indeed the worst …
Ryan Detrick
April 30, 2024
Under the Hood: AI Spending is Booming as Tech Giants Battle for Dominance
“Once cars become truly self-driving, they’ll be as revolutionary as the personal computer.” – Bill Gates Last week, four of the Magnificent Seven – Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla – reported quarterly earnings. This was a litmus test for investors looking to see if these tech behemoths could keep powering the market higher, and …
Carson Group
April 29, 2024
Underlying Economic Growth Is Strong, and Here Are 5 Reasons Why
Headline GDP growth in the first quarter disappointed, but as I pointed out yesterday, underlying growth was actually quite strong. The good news is that the cyclical areas of the economy, namely housing activity and business investment, are seeing strong growth despite the hurdle of higher interest rates. That’s really icing on the cake. The …
Sonu Varghese
April 26, 2024
The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy
The economy grew 1.6% in the first quarter, after adjusting for inflation. This was well below expectations for a 2.5% increase, and significantly below the 3.4% increase we saw in the last quarter of 2024. It also ended a streak of growth above 2% for six consecutive quarters. So, what happened – is growth really …
Sonu Varghese
April 25, 2024
Opportunities in Fixed Income
We’ve written a lot recently (here, here, and here) on the recent backup in yields as Fed Reserve interest rate cuts have been repriced following hotter-than-expected inflation and stronger-than-expected economic growth. Interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, the VIX’s cousin but for bonds instead of stocks, has also subsequently picked back up …
Grant Engelbart
April 24, 2024
Yes, Stocks Can Go Down
Market volatility is a constant companion for investors, but understanding the underlying economic indicators can provide a clearer path forward. How do we interpret the recent market pullback? What do the surging yields and inflation data tell us about the future economic outlook? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & …
Ryan Detrick
April 24, 2024
Let’s Talk about Geopolitical Events
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Source Unknown The escalating tension between Israel and Iran has many investors worried about what could happen next. Although we won’t pretend to know the answer, we do understand that while geopolitical events can cause near-term market volatility, they rarely cause …
Ryan Detrick
April 23, 2024
Under the Hood: Key Takeaways from Early Earnings Reports
“Wall Street tends to overreact when it gets worried about earnings” – Michael Price As we begin to sift through reports from the start of the earnings season, the takeaway message appears to be ‘good but not great.’ Analysts were expecting sluggish growth in the first quarter with sequential acceleration as the year progressed. …
Carson Group
April 22, 2024
3 Big Themes, and What It Means for Investing
One of the central themes in our 2024 Outlook was higher productivity growth over the next several years. The key idea was that tight and mature labor markets enhance worker productivity and incentivize businesses to organize work more efficiently and invest in technological resources. That’s something that doesn’t happen when labor is cheap. With better …
Sonu Varghese
April 19, 2024
Rates Are Higher, Just Like Everyone Expected
“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” -General Patton The quote above is one that I’ve used more in my career than probably any other quote. Markets are all about what is priced in and what isn’t, suggesting that the big opportunities can be found by going against the crowd in some …
Ryan Detrick
April 18, 2024