Investments
Carson House View Spotlight: Overweight Industrials
Carson House View Sector Rating: Overweight Carson’s House Views are the foundation of our asset allocation recommendations. Our partners and clients can utilize these directly through our proprietary House Views models or expressed independently using various ETFs available on our platform. Currently, we’re overweight the industrial sector due to a favorable economic and fiscal policy …
Carson Research
March 20, 2023
The Potential Fallout from Recent Banking Stress
It’s been a wild two weeks for equity markets. On the one hand, broader equities have been remarkably resilient. Despite three banks being shut down (Silvergate Capital, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank) and two others (Credit Suisse and First Republic) needing billions in assistance to stay afloat, the S&P 500 is down only 2.1% …
Carson Research
March 17, 2023
Did the Fed Drink Green Beer?
What a wild ride it has been the past few weeks in markets, but one thing we can’t deny is the calendar. We are in the thick of March Madness season, and today officially kicks off the First Round of the NCAA tournament. Odds are, if you are reading this, you are probably sneaking off …
Ryan Detrick
March 16, 2023
Carson House Views Spotlight: Financials
Due to a stable economy, higher interest rates, and low investor expectations that have become even lower, Carson Investment Research is upgrading the financial sector to overweight. We feel that the recent volatility ignited by a handful of regional banks is probably not over. However, we feel that investors searching for the next “big short” …
Carson Research
March 15, 2023
Where Goes the Fed From Here: Inflation vs. Financial Stability?
The Federal Reserve has two mandates – “pursuing the economic goals of maximum employment and price stability.” Over the past year, the Fed has been leaning on the side of the price stability mandate, arguing that the labor market is too tight, i.e., beyond maximum employment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mantra has been: “We must …
Sonu Varghese
March 14, 2023
What You Need to Know About Silicon Valley Bank
“A small spark can start a great fire” – Emmet Fox A bank many of us had never heard of this time last week now has the entire financial spectrum on the brink of disaster. Or does it? Here are some things you need to know about Silicon Valley Bank. The second-largest bank failure ever …
Ryan Detrick
March 13, 2023
Payrolls Strong but Unemployment Rises: All Mixed Up
Another month, another solid employment report. Employment rose by 311,000 in February, on the back of 504,000 in January and 239,000 in December. It’s certainly been a warm winter. This is the labor market that refuses to give in, despite the Fed throwing almost 500 bps (5%-points) of rate hikes at it and gearing up …
Sonu Varghese
March 10, 2023
Panic! At the Fed?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments this week during his semi-annual testimony in front of Congress did not inspire much confidence with respect to the path for monetary policy. It seems like Fed officials’ are confused as to what they want to do next. Case in point: last month, Powell said that the “disinflationary process …
Sonu Varghese
March 9, 2023
A Closer Look at Seasonality
We talked a lot about how February (especially the second half of February) could be a potential break for stocks, well the good news is that we now see many signs of better times potentially coming soon. Here’s what the average year for the S&P 500 looks like. Looking at the chart below, the blue …
Ryan Detrick
March 8, 2023
Why the Dollar Matters For International Equity Investors
Last year the MSCI EAFE Index, which represents a basket of developed market stocks, fell 14.5%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index lost 20.1%. It turns out the returns for these baskets were higher in local currency terms, and there was a big drag from a stronger dollar. In local currency terms, the MSCI …
Sonu Varghese
March 7, 2023
Nothing Beats Long-run Equity Returns
8 Principles of Equities: #1 – Nothing Beats Long-run Equity Returns Carson Investment Research recently published our 8 Principles of Equities. The first is the most important—In our opinion, nothing beats long-run equity returns. Not bonds. Not housing. Not gold, oil, or copper. Frankly, it’s not even close. Sure, there may have been periods of …
Carson Research
March 6, 2023
Why Invest in Stocks When Bond Yields are High?
TINA, or “There is No Alternative,” was the theme of the last decade as interest rates were close to zero. Yields on long-term bonds weren’t much above that. So, stocks were the “only alternative” if someone wanted reasonable returns. But now it looks like there is an alternative, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate …
Sonu Varghese
March 3, 2023