Investments
The Gems of Buffett’s Annual Letter
Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire shareholders is always a must-read. This year’s version didn’t disappoint, with some great takeaways, as my colleague Ryan Detrick discussed the other day. What’s particularly great is that he’s not shy to show the numbers. They’re the first thing you see, following the table of contents. From 1965 to …
Sonu Varghese
March 2, 2023
Four Things I Learned In Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter
The Oracle of Omaha did it again. He released Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Letter to his shareholders recently and as usual, it was full of wit, insight, humility, humor, and decades of wisdom. I’d encourage you to read it for yourself, but here are four things that really stood out to me. 1. One or two …
Ryan Detrick
March 1, 2023
The February Hangover Is Nearly Over
After the 11th best start to a year ever for the S&P 500 as of Valentine’s Day, stocks have pulled back the second part of the month in what we would classify as perfectly normal price action. Here’s a chart we started sharing at the beginning of the month and sure enough, the later part …
Ryan Detrick
February 28, 2023
Bull vs. Bear Breakdown: Apple (AAPL) Edition
Apple (AAPL) Edition A necessary part of any thorough research process is considering both the upside and downside investment case. The “bull” case is optimistic, characterized by the upward thrust of a bull’s lowered horns during battle. Meanwhile, bears fight by standing high and swiping down their sharp claws, exemplifying the potential risk of an …
Carson Research
February 27, 2023
Markets Now Expect Higher Rates, For Longer
We’ve seen volatility come back into equity markets over the last few weeks. Ironically, this has come amid a slew of stronger-than-expected economic data, including payrolls and consumption. Consumer confidence is also rising. The problem is that inflation numbers have stopped decelerating as fast as they were a few months ago. We wrote about this …
Sonu Varghese
February 24, 2023
Can the US Manage Its Debt? 😱
The US national debt is about $31 trillion right now, which is equivalent to about 120% of GDP (as of the third quarter of 2022). Massive, but also note that this is down from a peak of 135% in the second quarter of 2020. As a point of clarification, the US government typically racks up …
Sonu Varghese
February 23, 2023
12 Things Every College Student Should Know
I had the honor to recently speak with students at Xavier University in Cincinnati. I graduated from Xavier 22 years ago this upcoming May, so I was now the old person in front of a bunch of students trying to tell them what they needed to know. The good news is they all seemed to …
Ryan Detrick
February 22, 2023
Carson House View Spotlight: Bullish on Oil
Carson’s House Views are the foundation of our asset allocation recommendations. Our partners and clients can utilize these directly through our proprietary House Views models or expressed independently using various ETFs available on our platform. We’re overweight commodities strategically and tactically due to improving demand as global economies recover from a difficult 2022 and China …
Carson Research
February 21, 2023
Earnings Season Wrap-Up: The Waiting is Over?
Executive Summary 2023 S&P EPS estimates are falling (now $222), but stocks have added to YTD gains Don’t forget that stocks have been anticipating a slowdown since early 2022, when the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% despite a ~6% rise in EPS. Two reasons for the rally: Most companies have given encouraging 2H outlooks, allowing …
Carson Research
February 20, 2023
The Valentine’s Day Indicator Sees Green In 2023
First things first, this is a three-day weekend for many of us and I hope everyone enjoys the long President’s Day weekend. And if you need to buy a mattress, this is your Super Bowl weekend, good luck out there. Speaking of the Super Bowl, this is our yearly reminder that someone should run for …
Ryan Detrick
February 17, 2023
American Consumers: Have Money, Will Spend
“American Consumers: Have money, will spend“ That, in a nutshell, is the story of the economy right now. Retail sales and food services surged 3% in January, making a mockery of expectations for a 1.7% gain. This is the largest monthly increase since March 2021, but that came on the back of stimulus checks. So …
Sonu Varghese
February 16, 2023
Inflation Progress Stalls as the Economy Accelerates
January inflation data hit the nose on expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.5% and is up 6.4% year-over-year, while core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.4% and is up 5.6% year-over-year. The fact that inflation is coming in at expectations is in and of itself a victory. That’s a sharp contrast to last year when inflation …
Sonu Varghese
February 15, 2023