Investments
Here Comes The Historically Best Six Months Of The Year For Stocks
“The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” Winston Churchill The bounce off the October lows continues, with October living up to it’s reputation as both a potential bear market killer, but also the best month of a midterm year. Even more interesting is the past eight times the …
Ryan Detrick
October 25, 2022
Will Home Prices Crash?
This is a popular question now, and not a surprise given an ultra-aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) looking to get on top of inflation. Predictably, the housing market is one of the first economic sectors to get hit, as has historically been the case when the Fed raises rates. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was at …
Sonu Varghese
October 21, 2022
TGIF? Not for Investors
There are many ways to look at investor sentiment and one that we’ve been noticing lately is investors have been selling stocks on Friday. In other words, many investors do not want to hold over the weekend for fears over what could happen. If stocks were to shift into a more bullish phase, we’d expect …
Ryan Detrick
October 20, 2022
Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed
“Why not go out on a limb? That’s where the good fruit is!” Mark Twain October is living up to its name as one of the most volatile months, as there have only been 12 trading days this month (the average month has 21, so we’re a tad over the halfway point) and only four …
Ryan Detrick
October 19, 2022
The Fed is Spooking Economists
It’s the middle of October and that means being surrounded by Halloween themes. I put up Halloween decorations over the weekend – always a fun activity with the kids – and so being spooked was on my mind. And one doesn’t have to go far for that this year. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on …
Sonu Varghese
October 18, 2022
Everything You Wanted to Know About The CPI Report But Were Afraid To Ask
Another inflation report and more signs that inflation is staying stubbornly high. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month, well above the 0.2% that was expected and above 0.1% last month, while the year-over-year number was 8.2%, down slightly from last month’s 8.3%. Meanwhile, core CPI (ex-food and energy) soared a huge 0.6% …
Ryan Detrick
October 14, 2022
Remembering The 1987 Crash
October is known for many things, with incredible market crashes likely being at the top of the list. The Crashes of 1929 and 1987 stand out for many investors and who could forget the selling and volatility of October 2008? In honor of the greatest drop in stock market history, we’ll take a closer look …
Ryan Detrick
October 13, 2022
Labor Market Strength Is Not Really “Bad News”
The other day I highlighted 5 charts that illustrate the strength and resiliency of the labor market. Ironically, this was perceived as “bad news” by markets. Why? Investors believe labor market strength will prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue raising rates at a torrid pace in a bid to get on top of inflation. …
Sonu Varghese
October 12, 2022
5 Charts That Show the Strength of the Labor Market
Last Friday we got yet another strong payroll report, with the headlines showing payrolls growing 263,000 in September and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5%. The first three charts below show the strength and resiliency of the labor market this year. The last two are forward-looking indicators that bode well for continued employment gains. 1. …
Sonu Varghese
October 11, 2022
3 Charts to Watch
I’ve been in Omaha at the Carson Group home office the past few days and I’ll just say that the things we’ve got coming out over the coming months are going to be awesome. Stay tuned, as we have so many ways to help investors understand what is really happening, while also helping our Carson …
Ryan Detrick
October 7, 2022
Economic Indicators Still Don’t Point to a Recession
With so much focus on the markets and the Fed, I thought it would be a good idea to take a quick look at where the economy is today. There are obviously 100’s of economic indicators we can use, including survey-based or “soft” data and “hard” data. The soft data is useful to gauge where …
Sonu Varghese
October 6, 2022
7 Things to Know About The Historically Strong Q4
“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” Shelby Cullom Davis We all blinked, and it is now October, which could be good if you are hoping for higher stock prices. But, as this great quote by Shelby Cullom Davis explains, people’s decisions in a …
Ryan Detrick
October 5, 2022