Investments
The Midterm Election Is Two Months Away. What Investors Need To Know
First things first, the Carson Investment Research team would like to send our condolences to the Queen’s family, and all of our friends in the UK. We lost a great one yesterday and the world is a better place because of her.
Ryan Detrick
September 9, 2022
Consumer Confidence is Rising as Gas Prices Fall
It really is as simple as that, as the chart below illustrates.
Sonu Varghese
September 8, 2022
Four Charts On The Worst Month Of The Year
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Mark Twain
Ryan Detrick
September 7, 2022
Why We Use Sentiment for Economic Analysis on The Carson Investment Research Team
I traded options for more than a decade, and I learned that when everyone agrees on something, you better start to look at the other side of the trade. A quote I love from General Patton sums it up well: “If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.”
Ryan Detrick
September 2, 2022
The labor market is showing no signs of pain
Last week Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed is focused on its job of getting inflation down to their 2 percent target. As I wrote at the time, he also noted that there would be an unfortunate cost, as getting inflation back to target will bring pain to households and businesses. Put …
Sonu Varghese
September 2, 2022
Is the Economy Growing, or Shrinking?
Depends on what you’re looking at. Economic output as measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) fell 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second quarter. So, it’s perfectly reasonable to conclude that the economy shrunk in the first half of the year. In other words, we were or are in the middle of …
Sonu Varghese
August 31, 2022
All About 1,000 Point Down Days
The Dow fell more than 1,000 points on Friday on the heels of a hawkish Fed at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the 13th time in history that Poppa Dow fell that much. As the chart below shows, most of these big down days have taken place lately, with two in February 2018, eight in …
Ryan Detrick
August 30, 2022
What the student loan cancelation means for economic growth and inflation
The Biden administration made a huge announcement regarding student loans on Wednesday (August 24th). An announcement was expected given the upcoming expiration of the moratorium on student loan payments. The moratorium was originally part of the CARES Act, as part of income relief, and set to expire in September 2020 – but it was extended …
Sonu Varghese
August 26, 2022
The Fed will keep at it until the job is done
So said Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his much-awaited Jackson Hole speech. The “job” in this case refers to getting inflation down to their 2 percent target. That was really the big story.
Sonu Varghese
August 26, 2022
One Big Clue The Lows For The Year Could Be In
Are we having fun yet? The rollercoaster ride of 2022 continues, as the furious rally off the June 16 lows has taken a breather, with the S&P 500 Index finding resistance right at its 200-day moving average, a logical place for a break after a big bounce. Worries over a hawkish turn from the Fed …
Ryan Detrick
August 25, 2022
Why the Inflation Reduction Act Isn’t Really About Inflation and Other Questions Answered
The largest deficit reduction bill since 2011 has crossed the finish line. President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law August 16, and despite its name, it’s not expected to impact inflation in a meaningful way, particularly over the short term. Rather, it addresses the energy sector, taxes and health care costs, and signifies …
Sonu Varghese
August 24, 2022
Recession? Not if You Look at Industrial Activity
Whether we are in a recession is top of mind right now, with good reason as Americans experience the highest inflation in four decades. Not to mention the fact that we just got two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which, on the face of it, appears to be an open and shut case that …
Sonu Varghese
August 19, 2022