CARSON'S 2026 MARKET OUTLOOK:
Riding the Wave
Our Market Outlook 2026: Riding the Wave is geared toward helping investors navigate the ongoing bull market as we enter the new year. Carson Investment Research provides crucial insights and analysis of the opportunities and challenges facing investors.
Though 2025 saw its share of volatility, markets continued to defy the bears and ended the year on a strong note. In the 2026 Outlook, our team evaluates the key indicators we believe investors should watch this year so they can continue to build off of 2025’s momentum.
Market Outlook—Everything You Need to Know
Carson Investment Research has taken a deep dive into 2026’s opportunities and potential headwinds to offer a clear evaluation of what the next 12 months may hold in store for investors, including insights like:
Still Young: Why This Bull Market May Just Be Getting Started
At just over 3 years old, this young bull is barely halfway through the average bull market cycle, and we could see continued solid gains in 2026—though the year likely won’t be without its share of volatility.
Riding the AI Wave: Why We Don’t Fear the Bubble
Though there’s been some chatter about an AI bubble, growth in that sector continues to be a major tailwind for investors—though it does share some similarities with past market boom-and-bust cycles.
The Fed’s Balancing Act: What Factors Could Upset It?
Taming inflation and avoiding higher unemployment rates are the Fed’s two mandates, and it’s walked a fine line trying to balance both goals. But a new Fed chair will be installed this year, which could shift that approach.
Policy Tailwinds: Going Beyond Tax Cuts
The impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could be a boon for markets, as could an end to tariff chaos and further Fed cuts. But 2026 also still has its share of policy uncertainty.
Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group explains, “We move into 2026 riding a wave of momentum in both markets and consumer spending. Policy tailwinds – ranging from tax cuts and continued Federal Reserve rate cuts to easing tariff pressures – could help lift cyclical activity toward trend growth. Labor market risks are elevated, but that only increases the odds that monetary policy remains decisively dovish. The AI capex wave could also provide the next leg higher in profit growth.”
Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group explains, “We move into 2026 riding a wave of momentum in both markets and consumer spending. Policy tailwinds – ranging from tax cuts and continued Federal Reserve rate cuts to easing tariff pressures – could help lift cyclical activity toward trend growth. Labor market risks are elevated, but that only increases the odds that monetary policy remains decisively dovish. The AI capex wave could also provide the next leg higher in profit growth.”
Carson Group remains bullish on the economy and markets, which differentiates us from others,” said Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. “We believe 2026 is all about riding the wave. Waves can crest and crash, but right now the underlying momentum argues for seeking participation, not bailing out. The cushion against meaningful shock has widened and the American consumer and corporate balance sheets remains strong.