In Episode 213 of Facts vs Feelings, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist, are joined by Carson Group’s Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management, and Barry Gilbert, VP and Asset Allocation Strategist, to unpack a wild week for markets. They start with the fallout from the Jensen Huang news, as Nvidia slid nearly double digits for the week on reports tied to an alleged Chinese spy, and discuss why the likely congressional hearings and scrutiny of its overseas chip sales matter for investors. The group explains why trouble at one company shifts demand toward other semiconductor stocks rather than erasing it, and how the Supermicro and Dell story offers a useful parallel.
From there, the hosts react to the midterm elections, which Barry describes as a blue wave driven by voters’ focus on the price level. They also cover Thursday’s sell-off, when the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the SOX had its second-worst day ever, followed by a big bounce off the 200-day moving average. The team digs into why 44 of 45 data center ballot measures passed to restrict them, and how power constraints and the new Texas governor could squeeze data center returns.
The episode wraps with Waller’s call for a 50 basis point hike if core CPI topped 0.3%, why real yields point to resilient growth, how Blake and Barry manage portfolio risk around the AI trade, and Blake’s bullish take on Anthropic’s revenue growth.
[Key Takeaways]
● Nvidia fell nearly 10% for the week after reports that Jensen Huang had a relationship with an alleged Chinese spy tied to a major Southeast Asian chip buyer. Congressional hearings are expected, with Nvidia earnings on the 17th and Huang invited to testify on the 18th.
● Trouble at Nvidia doesn’t change chip demand. It moves demand around, and other semiconductor companies could gain bargaining power, much as Dell has surged while Supermicro has struggled.
● The midterms were a blue wave, with Barry saying voters want the economy and prices to be the priority. Consumer sentiment is poor even with low unemployment and 2.3% GDP growth, because people feel the price level, not the inflation rate.
● The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on Thursday, the SOX dropped more than 12%, and the VIX neared 30. Stocks then rallied sharply on Monday off the 200-day moving average, with over 80% of S&P 500 stocks higher.
● Historically, the six months after a midterm election have never been lower for the S&P 500, up 14.1% on average (19 for 19). Returns have been even stronger, at 16.5%, when Democrats controlled Congress.
● Data center restrictions won 44 of 45 ballot measures, and power is the biggest limiter to growth for AI builders. Higher costs and longer timelines could cut a data center’s equity returns from about 15% to near 5%.
● Waller said he’d back a 50 basis point hike if core CPI topped 0.3%, and core CPI came in at exactly 0.3%. Real yields have held up better than nominal yields, suggesting the bond market expects growth to continue and the Fed to stay tighter.
● On portfolio risk, the team stresses diversification, watching for rotation rather than abandonment, and the opportunity cost of falling behind. Blake is bullish on AI, citing Anthropic’s roughly $17 billion quarterly revenue, up over 1,000% year over year.
Jump to:
0:00 – Cold Open, Guests, And The Jacket
2:15 – Waller’s Fed Signal Before CPI
4:05 – What We Know About Jensen Huang
10:35 – Portfolio Fallout And Semi Rotation
16:45 – Diwali Stories And A Wrigley Scare
19:55 – Midterms Message: Focus On Prices
25:55 – The Sell-Off Then The Big Bounce
31:20 – Data Center Backlash And Power Bottlenecks
37:05 – Managing AI Risk Without Guessing
42:30 – Behavioral Coaching And The Advisor Edge
46:40 – An Open Invite To Advisors
48:55 – Real Yields And Inflationary Growth
52:10 – Omaha Food Culture And Anthropic Hype
55:35 – What We’re Watching Next Week
Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick
Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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