Investments
Winter Is Here
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” …
Ryan Detrick
November 14, 2025
5 Tailwinds for Markets
It’s now Day 43 of the shutdown and a resolution seems imminent. We know that the shutdown has been very challenging for a lot of people, but one small way it has impacted us is we haven’t received any official economic data for over five weeks, including payrolls, consumer spending, income, and production data. A …
Sonu Varghese
November 12, 2025
Is This Really a Hated Rally?
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” Bob Dylan “Subterranean Homesick Blues” It continues to amaze me how fearful many investors get when faced with fairly normal market volatility. Last week, everyone became a market breadth expert and we were told only a few stocks were going up (which …
Ryan Detrick
November 11, 2025
Tesla’s Big Vote
Tesla hosted their annual shareholder meeting this past week. While most annual shareholder meetings “put you to sleep” (in the words of Elon Musk), Tesla’s meetings often excite investors about the company’s future, and this meeting did just that. With shareholders overwhelmingly voting ‘For’ Mr. Musk’s pay package followed by a preview of futuristic technology …
Blake Anderson
November 10, 2025
Stocks Are to Lead Guitar as Bonds Are to Cowbell
High short-term yields and leftover anxiety from 2022 led to underinvestment in bonds in 2025. 2022 bond losses were unusual, but some bond volatility is not. 2025 returns were partially driven by yields being pulled down by rate cuts. We believe that process may have run its course for longer-term yields. Uncertainty still makes bonds …
Barry Gilbert
November 7, 2025
A Facts vs Feelings Special: Talking Markets With Joe Fahmy and Warren Pies
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth …
Ryan Detrick
November 5, 2025
Don’t Sleep on Momentum
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and …
Ryan Detrick
November 5, 2025
Has Diversification Worked in 2025?
We have come a long way since I last published a Carson Quilt chart, and the situation at that time for market returns was immensely different. Commodities were leading the way, up just 2.1% for the year, followed by fixed income, illustrating how the diversifying parts of a portfolio can be beneficial when the going …
Grant Engelbart
November 5, 2025
Every Year Has Bad News and Volatility
“I look to the future because that’s where I’m going to spend the rest of my life.” George Burns, Actor and Comedian Thanks to the near bear market back in April around the Liberation Day crash, 2025 joined the ranks of basically every other year in history that had some scary headlines and market …
Ryan Detrick
November 4, 2025
Tech Earnings Conclude
Technology investors are walking away with a smile from this earnings season. Many of the largest companies in S&P 500 traded higher after their earnings report, with the notable exception being Meta. The fundamental results produced by these companies were largely cheered by investors and fueled earnings expectations, as well as spending expectations, higher. And …
Blake Anderson
November 3, 2025
Here Comes the Best Month (and Best Six Months) Historically of the Year
“A body at rest stays at rest and a body in motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an external force.” Sir Isaac Newton, First Law of Motion The incredible rally continues, justified with some spectacular earnings results. Yes, we are looking at a six-month win streak for the S&P 500, but as …
Ryan Detrick
October 31, 2025
Powell Refuses To Be Pinned Down to a Dovish Outlook
The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25%-points at their October meeting, as expected. The target federal funds rate is now in the 3.75–4.50% range, 1.5%-points below the peak of this cycle, and the second cut in consecutive meetings. The chart below shows the upper end of their target. This is now the largest set …
Sonu Varghese
October 30, 2025