Investments
Is The Recession Imminent?
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the ripple effects of tariffs, high interest rates, and a wavering investment environment on the U.S. and global economies. With companies freezing investment plans and government spending cooling off, the duo explores how the …
Ryan Detrick
April 16, 2025
Here’s How the US Tax Code Results in a Larger Trade Deficit
Happy Tax Day! Or not. Though if you’re a large multinational, tax day in the US doesn’t really matter. In fact, to “celebrate” Tax Day, I’m going to discuss how the US tax code impacts the trade deficit. This is very relevant now because of everything going on around tariffs, with one of the stated …
Sonu Varghese
April 15, 2025
Under the Hood: Early Earnings Highlights
Markets received their first round of company earnings this week following unprecedented uncertainty. Several key companies offered a lens into the current state of consumer behavior, capital markets, and global demand. While strong quarterly results demonstrated these companies’ abilities to thrive in stable markets, executive commentary reflected growing concerns about a potential slowdown ahead. JPMorgan …
Blake Anderson
April 14, 2025
When in Doubt, Diversify It Out
What a week it has been — days that feel like weeks, weeks that feel like months. The last two weeks have seen the largest intraday market moves we have experienced since the depths of the COVID pandemic in March of 2020 and 2008 before that, periods marked with enormous uncertainty. Even though we saw …
Grant Engelbart
April 11, 2025
3 Unusual Things About This Selloff
(Updated as of 3pm CST 4/9/2025) We had the largest tariffs in over 100 years on for about 12 hours, before President Trump paused them for 90 days for countries that did not retaliate. That’s a relief, though we could be right back here in 90 days. But hopefully this gives the White House time …
Sonu Varghese
April 9, 2025
Welcome to the Crash of 2025
In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the immediate fallout of last week’s tariffs announcement and how it could impact both the U.S. and the global economy. They dive into the plunging markets, how a trade war could trigger a recession, …
Ryan Detrick
April 9, 2025
15 Things All Investors Need To Know
“It is about time in the market, not timing the market.” Old investment saying As of now, the S&P 500 has avoided officially entering a bear market (down 20% from the February 19th closing high), but who knows, by the time you read this we might be there. I’ll take a different approach today …
Ryan Detrick
April 8, 2025
IPO Markets Regain Momentum
Initial public offerings (“IPOs”) are considered a key indicator of investor risk appetite. Encouragingly, IPO activity across major U.S. exchanged has largely rebounded to long-term average levels. The consistency of recent IPO execution even looks similar to the late 2010’s, when global equity markets sustained years of gains. Notably, post-IPO returns reveal a meaningful divergence …
Blake Anderson
April 7, 2025
A Solid Payroll Report Means the Fed Stays on the Sidelines
The economy created 228,000 jobs in May, well above the 140,000 that was expected by forecasters. Monthly numbers can be noisy (especially since some of the jobs created could be a rebound from lower-than-expected numbers after terrible weather January and February) and so let’s look at the three-month average. That’s running at 152,000, which should …
Sonu Varghese
April 4, 2025
The Tariffs Are a Big Deal and Risks Are Very High
Tariffs are here and in a big, big way, much bigger than anyone expected. And it isn’t really reciprocal tariffs. The calculation of tariffs is based on the trade deficit the US has with each country, and nothing to do with actual tariffs other countries charge on US goods. For example, say a country exports …
Sonu Varghese
April 3, 2025
Tariffs Will Likely Put the Fed in a Tricky Spot
Liberation Day is here, but we’re still waiting to for the exact nature of our liberation. Will it be reciprocal tariffs, with the US reciprocating other countries’ tariff rates on US goods? These will be enormously complicated to implement. Or will it be President Trump’s preferred approach of imposing a blanket 20% universal tariff on …
Sonu Varghese
April 2, 2025
Waving Goodbye to A Tariff-ible Quarter
“It is uncertainty, far more than disaster, that unnerves and weakens markets.” -John Steele Gordon, American writer After serious consideration, we’ve decided to move all of our portfolios into Godiva Chocolate Cheesecake at The Cheesecake Factory, because if you’ve ever had one then you know. Now that I have your attention, April Fool’s Day! Now …
Ryan Detrick
April 1, 2025