Investments
Why Elevated Volatility Increases Odds for a Post-Election Rally
The stock market has been consistently hitting new records in September and October, despite what is typically a weak seasonal period for stocks. As Ryan discussed in his latest blog, stocks have had an incredible run this year (and last year), but there are several reasons to expect the bull market to continue. Momentum begets …
Sonu Varghese
October 30, 2024
Seven Reasons This Bull Market Is Alive and Well
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” -Winston Churchill Yes, stocks have had an incredible run this year (and last year), but there are some reasons to expect the good times to continue. No, we aren’t looking for …
Ryan Detrick
October 29, 2024
Under the Hood: Previewing Technology Earnings
The ‘Magnificent 7’ group of stocks enters this earnings season with meaningfully different expectations. As represented by earnings estimate revisions thus far in 2024, investors are beginning to distinguish between perceived leaders and laggards amongst this group. Below is a chart of 2024’s earnings estimate revisions for each of the seven in this group since …
Blake Anderson
October 28, 2024
16 Charts (and Tables) to Know This Election Year Revisited
“Americans will always do the right thing – after exhausting all other possibilities.” -Winston Churchill The Carson Investment Research Team began covering the election back in March with our “16 Charts and Tables) to Know This Election Year.” With Election Day now 11 days away and early voting taking place in many states, we thought …
Barry Gilbert
October 25, 2024
Talking About Anything and Everything with Josh Brown
What’s the secret to success in both finance and media? This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, joins Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to share his journey from retail stockbroker to RIA founder. He talks about …
Ryan Detrick
October 24, 2024
Don’t Miss Facts vs. Feelings Livestream – Tricks, Treats & Twists
Feeling spooked by all the market uncertainty as we head toward the end of the year? From inflation to Fed policy to the labor market to geopolitical worries to the bull market to the election, there are a scary number of economic concerns to keep an eye on over the last couple months of 2024. …
Carson Group
October 23, 2024
The Starting Point for Effective Portfolio Management
I’ve looked at thousands of portfolios over my career, most of them made up of mutual funds and/or ETFs but sometimes with individual stocks and bonds thrown in or even making up the entire portfolio. One thing that has repeatedly struck me is how sometimes adding “more,” more positions, more asset types, more specialized pieces, …
Barry Gilbert
October 23, 2024
Talking with Two Titans of Our Industry
“If you take it from one person it is called stealing, but if you take it from everyone it is called research.” -Old Wall Street joke One thing that Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and I have started to do this year is conduct interviews leveraging Spaces on X. A “Space” is simply a …
Ryan Detrick
October 22, 2024
Funding the Future: OpenAI’s latest Capital Raise
OpenAI has dazzled both ChatGPT users and investors in the past two years. The company recently achieved another milestone — closing the largest ever private market funding round for a technology company, according to the New York Times.1 OpenAI raised nearly $7 billion at a $150 billion pre-money valuation. With revenue growing and business plans …
Blake Anderson
October 21, 2024
Peak Interest Rates One Year Later
Tomorrow, October 19, will mark the one-year anniversary of the peak in the 10-year Treasury yield. According to CBOE’s US Treasury Yield Index, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.99% on Thursday, October 19, 2023. Even with the recent backup in yields, that’s about 0.9%-points above the current level. Bond returns over the last year …
Barry Gilbert
October 18, 2024
Valuation Fixation Despite Market Rotation
The third quarter was a very strong one for markets, but in a different way than we have seen in recent periods. Leadership changed, often catching some managers off guard, but showing the broadening strength of this bull market. The chart below shows this simplistically, with the returns from Q3 in light blue, compared with …
Grant Engelbart
October 17, 2024
Why There Could Be Years Left to This Bull Market
“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.” — Heraclitus, ancient Greek philosopher First things first, no one knows how much longer this bull market might last, but as we’ve been saying for a long time now, we see no reasons to …
Ryan Detrick
October 16, 2024