Investments
A Soft Inflation Print Acts as A Pressure Release Valve
What a day for markets yesterday. The S&P 500 Index gained 5.5%, its best day since April 2020. Here’s a chart from my colleague Ryan Detrick, showing some historical perspective for days that saw more than 5% gains. A year later markets were up 91% of the time, with an average return of almost 28%. …
Sonu Varghese
November 11, 2022
Encouraging Inflation Report, Including Goods Deflation
One month does not make a trend, but today’s consumer price index (CPI) report was very positive. Dare I say, it’s probably the best inflation report we’ve seen in about 15 months, especially because there were so many encouraging signs in it. This is a huge relief, and markets appear to be responding in kind. …
Sonu Varghese
November 10, 2022
Two Good Signs For Inflation
As we all know by now, inflation spiked to 40-year highs earlier this year and it has remained stubbornly high recently. It was last month’s CPI data that sparked a massive sell-off in stocks to the tune of nearly 15% in about 20 days. Well, tomorrow is the latest CPI report and all eyes will …
Ryan Detrick
November 9, 2022
Let’s Talk About Midterm Elections and Your Investments
Today is the midterm elections and we’ve had many questions about what it all could mean for investors, which we’ll tackle in today’s blog. First things first, the Carson Investment Research team wants everyone to get out there and have their voice heard. It is a great honor to be able to vote for our …
Ryan Detrick
November 8, 2022
A Tale of Two Employment Reports
Talk about a mixed picture from the October payroll report. Two headline numbers stand out: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 261,000 in October, more than an expected increase of 200,000 The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% The first headline suggests that employment is strong, and the economy is resilient to higher interest rates, so far. This …
Sonu Varghese
November 4, 2022
The Silver Lining of Another Fed Rate Hike
The Federal Reserve (Fed) just raised rates by 0.75%, taking the federal funds rate to a target 3.75-4.0% range. This is the 4th consecutive 0.75% interest rate increase and comes as the Fed tries to get on top of inflation. The bond market has been anticipating this aggressive pace of tightening, and treasury yields have …
Sonu Varghese
November 3, 2022
Beginnings and Ends: 100 Days at Carson and Saying Goodbye to A Dear Friend
Today is my 100th day at Carson! I can honestly say that I’ve never had more fun in my career and I’m so excited about what the future holds. What we are doing at Carson to help Advisors and their clients find their freedom is unlike anything anyone else is doing in the industry. I’m …
Ryan Detrick
November 2, 2022
The Best October for The Dow Ever
The Dow Jones Industrial Average began trading on May 26, 1896, and it just had the best October return ever, up 14.0%. This was the best month since January 1976 and third best month overall since World War II. We noted many times over the past month why October was likely to see a bounce …
Ryan Detrick
November 1, 2022
Economic Growth Picked Up, But A Lot is Going on Underneath
On the face of it, the third quarter GDP report was very positive, with growth rebounding to 2.6% quarter-over-quarter (annualized). This put at bay the question of whether the economy was in a recession, though admittedly a lot of these numbers can and will be revised in the future. But make no mistake, growth has …
Sonu Varghese
October 28, 2022
Burt and Ryan Join ThinkAdvisor
Carson Group’s Chief Strategy Officer Burt White and Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick joined Janet Levaux of ThinkAdvisor at Carson’s Excell conference from Las Vegas recently to discuss the state of markets and the industry. It was a fun conversation with some of the highlights including: Why volatility is the toll you pay for enjoying …
Ryan Detrick
October 27, 2022
A Divergence in the Housing Market, and Why it Matters For Inflation
Last week I wrote about how the housing market is in big trouble amid surging mortgage rates. Sales have collapsed and so have housing starts and building permits, indicating builders are pulling back. Prices have started to fall, with the Case-Shiller national home price index falling 0.9% from July to August, the second consecutive monthly …
Sonu Varghese
October 26, 2022
Here Comes The Historically Best Six Months Of The Year For Stocks
“The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” Winston Churchill The bounce off the October lows continues, with October living up to it’s reputation as both a potential bear market killer, but also the best month of a midterm year. Even more interesting is the past eight times the …
Ryan Detrick
October 25, 2022