In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Strider Elass of First Trust and Samuel Rines of WisdomTree for a timely discussion on the labor market, inflation trends, tariffs, and what investors should watch heading into late 2025. The conversation covers job growth concentration in a few sectors, revisions in employment data, underlying inflation measures, and how tariffs may reshape growth, manufacturing, and markets.
Key Takeaways
• After the latest jobs report, unemployment sits at 4.3%, with weakness concentrated outside health, education, and government.
• Real-time shelter metrics suggest underlying inflation is lower than official reports.
• Effective tariff rates could rise further, pressuring companies and growth.
• Growth could see a potential reacceleration in late 2025, but risk remains of structural slowdown.
• Health care services have been driving job creation, while manufacturing faces losses.
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
Connect with Strider Elass:
- LinkedIn: Strider Elass
- X: @StriderElass
Connect with Samuel Rines:
- LinkedIn: Samuel Rines
- X: @SamuelRines
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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