“I have a theory that the truth is never told during the nine-to-five hours.” Hunter Thompson, American Journalist and Author
For the first time since August 13, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high! Congratulations to all the bulls out there who held firm, even when we were told repeatedly why a big crash was coming.
Over the past few months, we’ve been scared, with worries about AI in a bubble, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking rates, yields soaring, and market breadth weak. In the face of the constant fear-mongering, after a historic rally in April and May, stocks simply consolidated for several months and now appear ready to move higher once again.
The bottom line is all the worries we’ve heard about nonstop haven’t stopped this bull market. We are aware there are worries and concerns out there, but we’ve remained bullish this whole time. Just like the classic quote above, the truth isn’t always told.
Many other bulls lately have cut their targets or were quite vocal about being open to a big drop in Q3, which fortunately, as we expected, never materialized.
We noted why the stars aligned for a rally this month and quarter. Now with the 27th new high of 2026 in the books, we continue to expect a solid end to an already solid year for investors.
It Isn’t Over Yet
Yes, the fourth quarter is the best quarter for stocks historically, up more than 80% of the time and up 4.2% on average. Here’s the thing — a huge second quarter (like we saw this year) is actually a bullish sign.
We found that when the second quarter gained more than 10%, the historically weak third quarter does well (check that box in 2026), and the final quarter of the year has never been lower: higher nine out of nine times, with some solid returns.
The Bull Turns Four
Get ready to hear a lot more about this next week, but this bull market turns four years old on October 12. In 2022, we had a vicious bear market to the tune of down 25%, but it ended on October 12, 2022. Now the S&P 500 is up close to 120% four years later, and this bull market continues to chug along, defying all the haters along the way.
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I will write a lot more about this on Friday, but for now, just know that four years old might sound old, but it really isn’t.
When looking at the five other bull markets going back 50 years that made it this far, every single one of them lasted at least until its fifth birthday, with an average length of eight years. We aren’t saying this bull is only halfway over, but we are saying to be open to this one lasting a lot longer.
Thanks as always for reading and for trusting us with our out-of-consensus bullish calls over the past few years. We won’t always be right, we won’t always be wrong, but we will be honest and consistent.
For our latest thoughts on the labor market, be sure to watch our latest Glass Half Full video below.
For more content by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, click here.
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