Outlook 2025

Animal Spirits

The economy had a big year in 2024, avoiding a recession while posting strong job numbers and a soaring stock market – and the markets have rallied even higher since the 2024 presidential election was decided.

But the new year brings new concerns for the economy. What impact could we see from President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to impose sweeping tariffs? How long do we think this bull market run will continue? How much should we expect the Fed to cut rates in 2025?

Everything you need to know for 2025.

Get a deep dive into the fundamentals of the markets and what to expect in the new year from Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, including insights like:

  • The economy is on solid footing right now — thanks to strong income growth, solid household balance sheets and strong recent labor productivity growth – but that does not mean there are no potential risks.
  • Fiscal policy could provide a tailwind in 2025. The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act has several provisions that “sunset” at the end of 2025, but the odds of the economy going over a fiscal cliff from automatic tax increases on January 1, 2026, have been reduced to close to zero amid Republicans capturing a majority in both chambers of Congress and the presidency.
  • President Trump has said his favorite word in the dictionary is “tariffs.” The threat of tariffs, and a retaliatory trade war, is clearly a hot topic. All else equal, tariffs will raise the price of imported goods (though it’s a one-time price level increase). But things don’t work as neatly as that. For one thing, it’s hard to predict what tariffs will actually be implemented, let alone their impact.

Watch and Learn About Our Insights on the Market Outlook

Carson’s Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into what you can expect from the markets and more throughout 2025. They discuss everything you need to know, including:

  • Whether they think economic momentum will continue in 2025
  • What policy changes we could expect from the second Trump administration
  • The outlook for stocks following an election year
  • How much the Fed could cut rates
  • Major risks for the markets to keep an eye on
More Insights

See the latest insights and market analysis from the Carson Investment Research team, and get all the investments news financial advisors need to know.

The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts

The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts

The Federal Reserve cut rates once again, taking policy rates down to the 3.50-3.75% range. This was as expected, but the chatter before the meeting was that this would be a “hawkish cut”. On the contrary, as I’ll discuss below. But even otherwise,...

10 Years Ago

10 Years Ago

“If you are going through hell, keep going.” Winston Churchill 10 years ago yesterday I was doing some work at home in our basement and suddenly heard a large crash in our garage. I ran upstairs to see what it was and saw that the entire ceiling had collapsed. Parts...

Is Reacceleration in the Cards?

Is Reacceleration in the Cards?

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening...

logo-carson-coaching-carson-coaching-all-color
More from the Carson Investment Research Team

Facts vs. Feelings takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.