Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

So much for the “AI is killing jobs” narrative, let alone “the Fed should keep rates low to protect the labor market”. We’ve been in the camp since the start of the year that the labor market looks better than a lot of economists, market bears, and even the good folks at the Federal Reserve …

With the upcoming SpaceX IPO and Anthropic also filing a confidential draft S-1, IPOs are in the news, to say the least. I thought it would be interesting to look at some historical stats on IPOs, and conveniently, Professor Jay Ritter at the University of Florida maintains a comprehensive IPO data hub covering IPOs from …

Inflation has been a big story recently, especially after the U.S.-Iran war started. We’ve pointed out that inflation was a growing problem even prior to the war and isn’t limited to an energy shock. Yet, the energy shock and higher pump prices are how inflation has been most salient for households. There was a school …

Looking at the equity market hitting all-time highs, you could be forgiven for thinking all is well. But you don’t have to look too far to see where there’s pain, by way of the bond market. We’ve been talking about an inflationary growth regime since the start of the year, and equities doing well while …

In our 2026 Outlook, we wrote about being in an inflationary growth environment and riding the wave of AI-related investment. Here we are six months later, and things have played out almost exactly as that. Of course, we didn’t predict the Middle East crisis and the energy price shock that followed, but inflation was a …

The inflation data doesn’t look good, no matter how you slice it. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.64% in July (equivalent to 8% annualized rate), with the three-month annualized pace running at 7.3%. CPI is now up 3.8% over the past year, the highest reading since May 2023. The big driver here is …

Take the labor market off your checklist for potential downside risks. We’ve been in the camp for a few months now that the labor market is healthier than noisy headline payrolls suggest. The April payroll data bears that out, pointing to a labor market that is no longer the downside risk it was. For the …

We’ve gotten a flurry of economic data over the past week, covering the labor market (JOLTS, the Employment Cost Index, ISM employment sub-indexes), personal income, and the broader pulse of the economy via the ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys. Layered on top of that, the big tech hyperscalers all reported earnings. While a lot, the …

We discussed the artificial intelligence (AI) wave in our 2026 Outlook and said we believed the best approach for investors was to ride it, using an equity overweight and broad diversified exposure. Five months later, that picture hasn’t changed—if anything, it’s only strengthened. AI continues to have a big impact on the economy. When I …

Kevin Warsh sat before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday for the start of his confirmation hearings as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. He sidestepped most of the political gotchas, reiterated his commitment to Fed independence, and outlined what amounts to a reform agenda: replacing the Fed’s inflation models, shrinking the balance sheet, …