Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential race and has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, although the endorsement does not necessarily mean she will win the nomination. The change in the Democratic ticket does not change our fundamental view of the election, which we discussed at length in our recently …

The US economy mostly runs on the back of household consumption, and so the manufacturing sector is usually bit of an afterthought. Though its salience has increased recently amid the 2024 presidential election campaign, and especially former President’s Trump’s preference for a weaker dollar to boost the export sector. Still, the headline news from the …

In my opinion, the June inflation report was picture perfect. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% in June, which was below expectations. Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, rose just 0.1%. These were below expectations, and combined with April and May data, reverses the “heat” we saw in the …

The stock market has been on a tear for more than 18 months now, with the S&P 500 up 44% from December 31, 2022 to July 8, 2024. We’ve consistently maintained that momentum begets momentum, and my colleague, Ryan Detrick, has written time and again as to why there’s more than enough reason to be …

I’ve noted in the past how the US economy primarily relies on consumer spending, and since consumer spending is driven by income growth, the employment situation is pretty much the ballgame. And right now, things are getting a tad uncomfortable. We’re not quite worried yet, but simply recognize that risks are rising. What’s running strong, …

NVIDIA briefly overtook Microsoft last week to top the charts as the most valued company in the world measured by market capitalization. The stock has pulled back since then, but it was up 156% year to date through last Friday (June 21st). This amazing run comes on the heels of a 239% return in 2023, …

The title was actually a question I put to Professor Jeremy Siegel when Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and I hosted him on a live Facts vs Feelings episode recently. (You can listen to the episode here.) Of course, the question assumes you need luck while investing, and I think a lot of you reading …

Fake news alert: Saudi Arabia is not going to stop selling oil in US dollars (USD), and they’re not ending any petrodollar pact. In fact, there is no petrodollar pact, secret or otherwise. So, there’s nothing to renew (or not renew). Nor is there any “paradigm shift” shift in global finance. The rather mundane truth …

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was a welcome “surprise” after a string of uncomfortably hot inflation reports. I put quotes around the word surprise, because in January and April, there was nothing within the inflation data or outside of it (e.g. inflation expectations, wage growth data) that suggested inflation was on a persistently higher …

Job growth continues to catch most people by surprise, rising 272,000 in May. That was well above expectations for a 180,000 gain. In fact, “whisper” expectations (as much as one can glean from online chatter amongst economists and strategies) seemed to be tilted to a downside surprise, perhaps close to 150,000. Mostly because we’ve had …