Articles authored by Barry Gilbert

You would be surprised how often I’m asked how many positions there should be in a portfolio or simply hear concerns that there are too many (or too few). A variant on this is concern about position sizes—more often that they’re too small, but occasionally that they’re too big. The mushy but true answer is …

Yields have been on the rise for the last few months. On February 27, the day before US hostilities with Iran began, the 10-year Treasury yield was 3.96%, just 0.01% above its low dating back to early October 2024. Since then, the 10-year yield has climbed nearly 0.50%, closing at 4.47% on May 13, the …

Today, we take a look at what’s worked defensively during the current rising rate period. I’m emphasizing “current” because every rising rate period has its own characteristics. To do this, we’ve looked at all S&P 500 drawdowns of more than 5% since September 2020. In some of these periods, bonds did “work” as a diversifier—in …

Today, we tackle a topic that we don’t write about a lot relative to its importance—municipal bonds. Why are munis important? A basic principle of investing (and one of the most ignored), Investment outcomes potentially should not be evaluated on returns but on the returns that you keep—returns after taxes. This is where municipal bonds …

In the first quarter, the S&P 500 had a total return of -4.3%, with the Russell 1000 Value Index outperforming the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 12.1% while energy led all sectors. Oh, wait, sorry, that was the first quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the S&P 500 posted a total return …

Markets in 2026 are looking an awful lot like they did this time last year. Yes, the drivers are different, but the similarities are eerie. Let’s take a look (numbers as of Tuesday’s close)… The S&P 500 is down year to date. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index is outperforming the S&P 500. Gold is having …

If you haven’t read it already, in yesterday’s insightful blog, Carson’s Chief Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese provided an update on inflation expectations given the expanding (for now) conflict in the Middle East. For the basic takeaway, just look at the title: The Inflation Outlook Doesn’t Look Good. Now that’s not 2022 “doesn’t look good.” But …

In our 2026 Outlook: Riding the Wave, we took a look at the average return for the S&P 500 (and the likelihood of a positive year) for all years versus only years when the economy is growing (avoids a recession), consistent with our base case for 2026. Not surprisingly, when you take recessions off the …

The 10-year Treasury yield has been climbing since bottoming at 3.95% on October 22 last year. While it’s not currently at its peak since then, it’s not far off with a close of 4.22% as of yesterday. We said in our Outlook 2026: Riding the Wave that we don’t think that lower short-term rates will …

The S&P 500 could still top 20% three years in a row, something that’s only happened one other time since 1929. The EAFE Value Index is ahead of the Russell 1000 Growth Index by almost 20%-points—the last time EAFE Value outperformed in a year both were higher was 2006. The Bloomberg Gold Index is up …