Articles authored by Barry Gilbert
7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip The 119th Congress is being sworn in today, with Republicans taking over majority leadership in the Senate and holding onto the House with the narrowest majority in the history of the Republican party. So we thought it would …
6 Nominees for 2024 Chart of the Year
Well, that’s a wrap on 2024. The S&P 500 finished the year with a total return of 25%, the second consecutive year over 20%, which hasn’t happened since 1998 and 1999. (Lest the bubble brigade raise an eyebrow at that last year, that was the fifth consecutive year of a total return over 20%.) There’s …
A Strategic Approach to Factor Investing
Today’s blog is a follow-up to Carson’s VP, Investment Strategist Grant Engelbart’s insightful recent discussion of factor investing and alpha opportunities, “Enhancing Portfolio Management.” Factors are a theme we regularly return to. Grant also covered factor investing in a piece earlier this year called “Factor Investing 2024,” and our Portfolio Manager Mike Lawrence covered the …
The Drivers of Long-Term Stock Returns
We sometimes get questions about why we think stocks will continue to go up in the long run. That gives me an opportunity to refer back to some of our favorite long-term investing charts that capture our views. Almost exactly a year ago, our Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese wrote a piece called, “This Is …
The Perils of Stock Picking
Being an effective stock picker is a specialized skill that requires a combination of deep knowledge of a company’s business model and prospects, fierce self-discipline, a hard-earned feel for market psychology, and knowledge of portfolio construction to help limit risk. In the end, you need to have an informational advantage that isn’t already “priced in” …
What May Be Next for Interest Rates
As investors look ahead to the post-election rate environment next year, there are a lot of questions, especially with the recent sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Like 2023, when interest rates started and ended the year in the same place with a whole lot happening in between, interest rates have been on quite …
10 Quick Election Takeaways
Well, election day is now behind us, and while there’s some dust to settle yet, we now know a lot this morning. First, President-elect Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States, joining Grover Cleveland as the only president to win non-consecutive terms. Trump also won the popular vote for the first …
12 Things to Know About Watching the Election Results
Well, election day is finally here. An estimated 79 million ballots have already been cast through mail-in and early in-person voting, or just over 50% of 2020’s total ballots cast, but this evening we end the voting process and, as polls close, begin the counting process. Carson Investment Research has been covering the election and …
How Markets Might Respond to Post-Election Uncertainty
Have you heard? This is a tight election and it’s going down to the wire. Election Day is now five days away but an estimated 58.4 million ballots have already been cast, or more than 1/3 of the total votes cast in 2020. We would still call the presidential race a near coin toss, although …
16 Charts (and Tables) to Know This Election Year Revisited
“Americans will always do the right thing – after exhausting all other possibilities.” -Winston Churchill The Carson Investment Research Team began covering the election back in March with our “16 Charts and Tables) to Know This Election Year.” With Election Day now 11 days away and early voting taking place in many states, we thought …