Articles authored by Barry Gilbert

Monday, June 30, concluded an extraordinary first half for markets. The end of the half is always a good time to look at what’s been happening in markets and think about implications for the second half of the year. Here are some highlights from the first half of the year and what they might tell …

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow and the market implied odds that they will not cut rates, via CME’s FedWatch tool is 99.83%. (I can’t help but hear “So you’re saying there’s a chance” in my head in reaction, but yes there’s a near zero chance of a cut since the Fed doesn’t …

It may be a little early to do a post-mortem on the February 19 – April 8, 2025 near-bear market, but maybe it’s not too early to find perspective that we didn’t have “in the moment.” Despite the unusual driver of this particular near-bear market, really just a single actor (who also gets credit for …

Bonds have actually had a good run over the last year (for bonds). The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is up 5.8% trailing year as of yesterday’s close versus 4.9% for the Bloomberg US 1-3 Month Treasury Bill Index. That’s a fair discount to the S&P 500 over the same period (9.7%), but still …

Today is Day 100 of the second Trump administration (counting Inauguration Day as Day 1). We’ve learned a lot in the first 100 days, but if you’re a market person you’re aim is always to look ahead, not backwards. Carson’s global macro strategist Sonu Varghese did just that in his recent blog, “What’s Next? The …

Let’s Keep It Simple Sometimes I find it helpful when I think through a problem to state the obvious. So here it goes. Stating the obvious when it comes to trade, the main reason the US has a net trade deficit with the rest of the world is because we consume more than we produce …

“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip Back on January 3rd, to mark the swearing in of the 119th Congress, we shared seven risks to our bullish policy outlook. That was still 17 days before inauguration day. Now we’ve seen the new administration’s policies gel …

For the second consecutive decline of 5% or more in the S&P 500, long Treasuries have been playing defense, at least so far. Here “playing defense” means a return better than short Treasuries, although over short periods of time that’s usually near zero. I’m using long Treasuries here as a proxy for bonds, because they …

Let’s get it on the table. Of all the charts that raise concerns for me about the economy right now, despite a still solid base case, the one below worries me the most. Not for what it represents in itself but for what it says about where we are in the cycle in general. The …

The S&P 500 rallied 2.9% last week ahead of inauguration day, helped by some positive inflation news and a strong start to earnings season. The move pushed the index into positive territory for the year, although still 1.6% below the December 6, 2024 all-time high as of Friday. Monday was inauguration day, a good moment …