Articles authored by Barry Gilbert

Have you noticed Carson has been talking about artificial intelligence (AI) a lot lately? Below is a little roll call of 20 of our blogs (and a podcast) on AI so far in 2024. Among the authors, you’ll see the names of Carson’s Portfolio Managers, Jake Bleicher and Sr. Analyst, Investment Blake Anderson, come up …

As long as employment is strong, consumer spending will be strong. Yes, job gains slowed in July but prime age (25-54) participation in the labor market remains near record levels, layoffs remain low, and aggregate income growth has been solid. Those numbers were the underpinning of a large upside surprise in July retail sales. Headline …

There were few surprises in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data yesterday for July. The “headline” reading was in line with expectations at 0.2%, which brought the one-year reading down to 2.9% versus expectations of 3.0%. The core reading (excluding food and energy) was also in line with expectations at 0.2% for the month …

This was a “goldilocks” GDP report, with enough strength to be reassuring but not so much that it weighed on the likelihood of a September rate cut. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% in the second quarter, after adjusting for inflation. This was well above expectations of a 2.0% increase and acceleration …

The next jobs report comes out on August 2. There is a chance the report may trigger a recession signal called the Sahm rule, with an accompanying viral explosion of misinterpretation and misinformation. While the Sahm rule may not trigger, we thought it would be useful to get ahead of things and provide some thoughts …

The 2024 Republican National Convention ended on Thursday with former President Donald Trump’s acceptance of his party’s nomination. We also can’t ignore the other events in the last several weeks, including the contemptable attempt on former President Trump’s life and the ongoing uncertainty about President Joe Biden’s candidacy following his poor debate performance on June …

Carson Investment Research has released its Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize. It’s been quite a year so far, with continued job market strength (although with some slowing), strong earnings growth, and stock gains that surprised many to the upside, outpacing even our out-of-consensus views for continued market strength. As we put together the …

If you read Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick’s prescient blog on Wednesday, you knew this might be coming. Ryan reminded us that debates don’t usually have an impact on elections, but sometimes there is that one gaff or glaring fault that a candidate never fully recovers from. Last night former President Donald Trump did not …

Carson’s VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese and Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick spoke with Dr. Jeremy Siegel in our latest Facts versus Feelings podcast, and I couldn’t but help borrow the title of this blog from the title of his must-read book, Stocks for the Long Run. Dr. Siegel has had such a strong …

In recent blogs we discussed the strength of household balance sheets and also how higher wages have been more than offsetting inflation, including for lower income workers. Today, we look at a third piece that helps explain consumer strength, the offsetting impact of higher rates on savers and borrowers. Consumers are penalized by higher rates …