Sonu Varghese
Here’s Why Impressive Housing Data is Also Good News for Inflation
I discussed housing in my prior blog, and how that’s good news for the economy. Single-family starts and permits have been surging recently, which is something you typically see when coming out of recessions. As opposed to something that happens prior to an economic slowdown. In fact, we look set to break an 8-quarter streak …
Sonu Varghese
June 22, 2023
Good News on Housing and Why That’s a Big Deal for the Economy
Last month I wrote about how the housing market is rebounding, which is a really good sign for the economy. As I noted in that piece, residential investment has been a drag on the economy for 8 straight quarters. No surprise why: The Federal Reserve (Fed) began its most aggressive policy tightening cycle in 40+ …
Sonu Varghese
June 21, 2023
Why the Fed Wasn’t As Hawkish As Everyone Thinks
The Federal Reserve (Fed) didn’t raise rates in June, leaving the Federal Funds rate in the 5-5.25% range. This was the first meeting in which they held back ever since they started raising rates back in March 2022. However, the big news was that Fed members project rates to be 0.5%-points higher than what they …
Sonu Varghese
June 15, 2023
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory. Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece …
Sonu Varghese
June 9, 2023
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after …
Sonu Varghese
June 7, 2023
A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore? Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month. The economy created 339,000 jobs in …
Sonu Varghese
June 2, 2023
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt. Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts. The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that …
Sonu Varghese
May 31, 2023
A Debt Ceiling Update and Our Conversation with PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill
My colleague, Ryan Detrick and I, talked with PIMCO’s Head of Public Policy, Libby Cantrill, about the debt ceiling earlier this week. Check out our latest episode of Carson Research’s Facts vs Feelings podcast. Libby is extremely busy these days talking about the debt ceiling and we were honored to have some time to chat …
Sonu Varghese
May 26, 2023
Government Debt Has Exploded Higher. Should We Worry?
The fight over the debt ceiling in Washington D.C. has focused attention on the size of U.S. government debt. And it’s not pretty to look at. From the end of 2019 through the end of 2022, government debt has increased by a whopping 35% to $31.4 trillion. That translates to a dollar increase of $8.2 …
Sonu Varghese
May 24, 2023
The Leading Indicator That’s Pointing Away From a Recession
It’s hard to get away from continued recession calls, even as several data points suggest the opposite. For example: Employment: running strong Retail sales: rebounded in April Manufacturing: signs point to a turnaround, especially vehicle production Housing: a turnaround seems to be happening I want to focus on housing in this blog. Residential investment makes …
Sonu Varghese
May 19, 2023