Articles authored by Sonu Varghese

We here at the Carson Investment Research Team regularly update our “House Views” on the markets, and specifically various asset classes that make up the core of our portfolios. These views are the foundation of our active asset allocation recommendations and form the basis of decisions we make while managing various portfolios on the Carson …

Sometimes a meme can convey a white paper’s worth of sentiment within a single picture; that’s why they spread faster than the news sometimes. so, let’s keep it simple: The economy created 517,000 jobs in January, well above expectations for a slowdown to 175,000.   The unemployment rate is at 3.4%, the lowest level since …

This week, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%, taking the federal funds rate to the 4.50-4.75% range. This is the slowest pace of increase since last March and a welcome downshift after the aggressive pace we saw last year. They also said that ongoing interest rate increases will be appropriate to return inflation to …

The latest GDP growth numbers for Q4 2022 came in at 2.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized rate), which was higher than expectations for a 2.6% reading. This is only slightly below the Q3 growth rate of 3.2%. Over the full year, GDP growth was up just 1% compared to the end of 2021. But this hides the …

Carson Investment Research just released its 2023 outlook, which we titled “The Edge of Normal.”  The big theme for 2022 was higher-than-expected inflation, which surged to the highest level since 1981. This resulted in the Federal Reserve embarking on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in 40 years, which led to an ugly 2022 for …

After the October inflation report, I wrote that “one month does not make a trend.” After the November report, I wrote that we have the “making of a trend.” We now have a trend! Headline inflation fell 0.1% in December, the slowest pace since May 2020. Inflation has now decelerated to 6.5% year-over-year, quite a …

Almost every outlook you open this season has forecasters predicting that 2023 will see a recession. In contrast, we here on the Carson Investment Research Team believe the economy can avoid a recession this year. Note that the recession calls are all forecasts and clearly do not reflect where the economy is right now. For …

The December payroll report was yet another upside surprise as far as employment data go. Monthly payrolls rose by 223,000, above expectations for a 200,000 gain. The unemployment rate was expected to remain at 3.7% but fell to 3.5% – tying for the lowest rate since the 1950s. This is not remotely indicative of an …

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a surprise decision on Tuesday to widen the allowed trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from ~25 to ~50 basis points. This move signals a shift in the BOJ’s approach to monetary policy and inflation and is likely to be sustained by the incoming governor of the …

First, the good news – The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) to the 4.25-4.50% range – a step down from the 75 bps rate hike pace they went with at the last four meetings. This was expected, but it’s always good to see confirmation. They also said that …