Small Caps Join the Party
“You’re killing me, Smalls!” Ham Porter to Scotty Smalls in The Sandlot We made it to fall! The weather should start to get cooler, the days are shorter, the leaves change, and football is in the air. Well, as a Cincinnati Bengals fan our season is over, but for the rest of you, there is …
3 Takeaways from OpenAI Usage
OpenAI released an in-depth research paper detailing how users are employing ChatGPT. There are three takeaways that stood out to me: Usage is booming. Interactions are becoming higher quality. And users are increasingly using the model for non-work related topics. These datapoints tell a cohesive story: ChatGPT is becoming a more reliable counterpart in our …
Bonds: From Boring to Active
Navigating financial markets is always challenging, and this year has been no exception. Fixed income is an asset class that is often labeled as boring – which is realistically what we want it to be: boring and steady – but has been anything but. Over the past year, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has shifted …
The Fed Cuts, but What Comes Next? Look to 2026
The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates 0.25%-points at their September meeting, taking their policy rate to the 4.0–4.25% range. This comes after a long nine-month pause but the move was widely expected, especially given recent data showing a rapidly cooling labor market. While investors did not expect an extra-large 0.5%-point cut (fed funds futures markets …
S&P 500 Returns in 2025 Have Been a Story of Profitability
The Majority of S&P 500 Returns This Year Driven by Positive Fundamentals The S&P 500 price index has a year-to-date return of 12.0% (through September 12, 2025), and a total return (including dividends) of 13.0%. As many investors have witnessed, this has come on the back of a 25% total return in 2024, and 26.3% …
Live From Excell With Dr. David Kelly
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. From jobs data revisions and labor supply challenges to the Fed’s upcoming rate …
Let’s Talk About a Government Shutdown
“I don’t tell jokes. I watch the government and report the facts.” Roy Rogers In case there wasn’t enough bad news out there, now we have to worry about a potential government shutdown in two weeks on September 30. Congress has until then to fund the government or we could be looking at the first …
Oracle’s Blockbuster Results
“Eventually, AI will change everything. But right now, AI is fundamentally transforming Oracle and the rest of the computer industry, though not everyone fully grasps the extent of the tsunami that is approaching.” – Larry Ellison, Oracle CTO, on the company’s latest earnings call. Oracle’s stock surged 35% on Wednesday following the release of their …
How Old Is This Bull Market? Younger Than You Think
“To see what is in front of one’s nose is a constant struggle.” George Orwell The bull market rolls on, as the S&P 500 has now made 24 new all-time highs and is up 12% for the year, a long way from down 15% back in early April after the Liberation Day meltdown. The bull …
The Fed Is Likely to Bet on Transitory Inflation
Inflation’s running quite hot, but I believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) is going to cut interest rates next week for two reasons: 1) the labor market is weak; 2) they’ll argue that hot inflation is transitory. Let’s start with the inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed that inflation is running hot. …
Alternatives and 401(k) Plan Lineup Construction
By Michael Barczak, CFA®, VP, Retirement Plans – Investments The August 7th Executive Order (EO) opened the door for alternative asset classes — private equity, private debt, hedge funds, crypto, etc. — to be considered as options in 401(k) investment lineups. Much of the conversation since has centered on can these asset classes be added, …