Growth Scare
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the “growth scare” and discuss whether the bull …
Wait, Is GDP Growth Really Going To Be Negative in Q1?
Even as the world’s attention last Friday was focused elsewhere, we got a real doozy of a data update in one corner of the economic universe. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Real GDP “Nowcast” for Q1 plunged from 2.3% to -1.5%, and then down to -2.8% after more data on Monday. Yeah, that’s not a typo, …
Why We Expect Some Green in March
“Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway Welcome to March and good riddance to February! In the end, February was a choppy and frustrating month, but this wasn’t a big surprise, as we wrote about and discussed all month. Are better times …
What’s Next for Crypto?
Digital assets had another great year in 2024, led by strength in Bitcoin and ETF inflows, catalyzed further by the new administration. However, as we enter more volatility in February of 2025, the prospect of higher prices now appears to be in question. Bitcoin hovers around 22% below its all-time high, but other major digital …
Nvidia’s Earnings Meet Expectations
Nvidia released its latest earnings report after market close on Wednesday, delivering results that largely met expectations. Despite increased volatility in the stock recently, which included a record one-day market cap loss, the company’s fundamentals appear strong, customer demand remains robust. While investors can never know with certainty how the future unfolds, Nvidia’s latest results …
Denominator Blindness
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market trends, inflation data, and what’s driving stocks to all-time highs despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and other economic uncertainty. Key Takeaways: Markets at All-Time Highs: Despite concerns about tariffs, …
That Escalated Quickly
“Boy, that escalated quickly.” Ron Burgundy of Anchorman This isn’t a surprise They say the stock market takes the escalator up, but the elevator down and the past four days have sure felt like an elevator down. It feels like a long time ago, but exactly one week ago the S&P 500 was at a …
Lessons From Buffett: Dividends Are Tax-Inefficient, and Hurts Compounding
“In a very minor way, Berkshire shareholders have participated in the American miracle by foregoing dividends, thereby electing to reinvest rather than consume.” – Warren Buffett, Berkshire Shareholder Letter, 2025 The quote above is from Warren Buffett’s latest missive to Berkshire shareholders, and as usual, it does not miss. There are several nuggets of wisdom …
Mighty Mid-Caps
Mid-Cap stocks have had a strong start to 2025. The iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF (trading under IWP) has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ETFs so far this year. In fact, the recent surge in this index is reaching historical levels, with concentration in the index at a decade-high. This heightened …
5 Reasons Why We’re Not Worried about Rising Credit Card Debt
Every quarter the New York Federal Reserve releases its household credit and debt report and we get a flurry of headlines about rising credit card debt, and rising delinquencies. As always with these things, it’s important to maintain some perspective. One: Household Leverage is Actually Reducing Credit card debt rose 3.9% last quarter (Q4 2024) …
Animal Spirits Are Flagging, but There’s Plenty of Time to Get Back on Track
Let’s get it on the table. Of all the charts that raise concerns for me about the economy right now, despite a still solid base case, the one below worries me the most. Not for what it represents in itself but for what it says about where we are in the cycle in general. The …
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Outlook 2025: Animal Spirits
The economy had a big year in 2024, avoiding a recession while posting strong job numbers and a soaring stock market. But will it stay that way?