Investments
Should You Hold Bonds in a Portfolio?
This is probably one of the biggest questions we are getting, and with good reason. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is set for two consecutive years of negative returns and is currently amidst its worst ever peak-to-trough drawdown, a 15.3% pullback from its most recent high (back in July 2020). While we expect equities …
Sonu Varghese
September 27, 2022
Two Reasons Not To Lose Faith
Happy Friday! It has been another tough week for the bulls, especially after the weakness after another hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, as my colleague Sonu Varghese broke down here. I’ve had a lot of questions lately about how could someone possibly be bullish? This is going down as one of the worst years ever …
Ryan Detrick
September 23, 2022
The Fed Wants to Get Inflation Behind Us, But There Isn’t a Painless Way to Do That
An aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) raised their target policy rate by another 0.75%, taking it to the 3.0-3.25% range. This was the third successive 0.75% rate hike by a Fed looking to get on top of inflation. While it was largely expected, the big surprise was how high they projected the interest rate to go …
Sonu Varghese
September 22, 2022
Five Reasons Inflation Isn’t So Sticky
After the disappointing all around Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last week, the worries over inflation staying higher for longer (what they call sticky) is a very real worry. That report showed prices for many goods and services were increasing more than expected (even things like dental services were much higher than expected), while nearly …
Ryan Detrick
September 21, 2022
What Real Interest Rates Can Tell Us About Equity Valuations
The change in the price of a security (or index) can be broken down into contributions from earnings growth and valuation changes. The S&P 500 is down 19% this year (through September 16th) and as this chart from J.P. Morgan illustrates, that is entirely due to falling valuation multiples. Earnings growth has been a positive …
Sonu Varghese
September 20, 2022
Buckle Up, Late September Can Be Rocky
We are winding down an absolutely awesome time at Carson’s Excell experience in Las Vegas.
Ryan Detrick
September 16, 2022
Interest Rates Have Risen a Lot, and Could Go Higher
The August CPI report was a disappointing one, especially core inflation which strips out food and energy.
Sonu Varghese
September 15, 2022
About That Hotter Than Expected CPI Report
Hello from Las Vegas! The team is currently out here for Carson’s 37th Excell experience. It’ll be a jam-packed three days of fun and learning, with more than 1,500 advisors from all over the country in attendance. The Investment Research team is here, presenting, sharing, learning, and helping our Partners and advisors. As a result, …
Ryan Detrick
September 14, 2022
Where Do Gas Prices Go From Here
I wrote last week that consumer confidence is rising on the back of falling gas prices. Gas prices have dropped for 13 consecutive weeks, from a peak over $5 a gallon to about $3.75 per gallon. The good news is that it will have a deflationary impact on headline inflation data for August (released this …
Sonu Varghese
September 13, 2022
The Midterm Election Is Two Months Away. What Investors Need To Know
First things first, the Carson Investment Research team would like to send our condolences to the Queen’s family, and all of our friends in the UK. We lost a great one yesterday and the world is a better place because of her.
Ryan Detrick
September 9, 2022
Consumer Confidence is Rising as Gas Prices Fall
It really is as simple as that, as the chart below illustrates.
Sonu Varghese
September 8, 2022
Four Charts On The Worst Month Of The Year
“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” Mark Twain
Ryan Detrick
September 7, 2022