Insights Investments

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame Yankees catcher I was honored to be included in the fifth volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook! This incredible report is compiled by Josh Schaefer, Markets Reporter at Yahoo Finance, and we think it is simply a must read for all …

This chart from our friend, Neil Dutta, Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro, tells an absolutely incredible story if you ask me: it tells you that spending on artificial intelligence (both IT hardware equipment and software) contributed an average of 1.0%-point to GDP growth over the last two quarters. That’s more than the contribution of …

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the latest surprising jobs data, significant payroll revisions, and President Trump’s controversial firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen. Ryan and Sonu also provide insights into the Fed’s next moves, inflation challenges, …

“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.” Oscar Wilde After stocks gained more than 2% in July, the first day of August landed with a thud, as the S&P 500 fell 1.60%, the first 1% drop since before Flag Day (June 13) and worst overall single day …

This was a big week if you wanted to get a picture of the economy, inflation, and even policy (both monetary and tariffs). Here’s the big picture: The labor market is clearly slowing, despite a low headline unemployment rate of 4.2%. Soft payroll growth and easing wage growth means aggregate income growth is slowing. Inflation …

When asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton replied, “Because that’s where the money is.” I wish I knew why, but August is a month that tends to have a lot of out-of-the-blue scary events pop up and with that comes a good deal of market volatility. Who could forget last August? Stocks fell more …

When it comes to stocks, in the long run earnings are everything since the ability to grow earnings gives stocks their fundamental value, and in the long run earnings have followed a fairly steady path, with higher margins really since early 2000 offsetting lower sales due to slower global growth. On the other hand, in …

 In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the recent easing of global trade tensions and how markets have responded positively. They dive into three popular market myths currently being debated, analyze corporate earnings, and provide their reasoning on why stocks …

“Indecision may or may not be my problem.” Jimmy Buffett     Stocks continue to trend higher, yet I’m noticing a few myths starting to show up that are meant to scare investors. In today’s blog, we are going myth busting! Myth 1: No, Market Breadth Isn’t Bad I’ll be honest, I don’t get where …

One of the most popular economic indicators is the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), and it currently points to recession. The LEI has historically had a high correlation with GDP growth – the chart below shows year-over-year change in both. You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 1990, 2001 …

In my opinion, the trade war is over. There may be more tariffs to come, especially a few large tariffs on August 1st on a bunch of countries (50% for Brazil!), plus sectoral tariffs on things like copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and electronics. But even those may be postponed (in fact, pharma tariffs may actually …