Investments
Mid-Year Earnings Recap
Nearly all S&P 500 companies have reported earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with the notable exception of Nvidia, which we will cover in detail next week. Spoiler alert: earnings results were quite solid despite the uncertainties. A.I. companies shined, particularly in the “Mag 7” (as we discuss here and here), but there were …
Grant Engelbart
August 20, 2025
The Fed Has an Inflation Problem
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market moves, the outlook for rate cuts, and what the data is really telling us about inflation and growth. From cooling economic numbers to investor sentiment, this week’s conversation highlights why …
Ryan Detrick
August 20, 2025
Will The Fed Really Cut Rates With Stocks Near New Highs?
“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it,” Ferris Bueller The bull market continues, but there are some potential small cracks forming. We will get to all of that, but what has amazed me is three weeks ago we were told there would be …
Ryan Detrick
August 19, 2025
Microsoft Further Exceeds a Higher Bar
Microsoft’s latest quarterly earnings report revealed that the company’s AI offerings are powering growth beyond what the company expected. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing business, continues to exceed expectations and post accelerating revenue growth rates. Many “AI-native” companies, including OpenAI, rely on Azure’s unique product portfolio to help train and advance their offerings. By providing the …
Blake Anderson
August 18, 2025
How We Make Room for Gold in Our Strategic Allocation Portfolios
In my previous blog, I discussed our longer-term strategic outlook, the core of which is that we remain optimistic about globally diversified equities. But even beyond equities, our view is that: Inflation will be volatile going forward. This doesn’t mean average inflation will be much higher than 2%, but we’ll see more volatility. The Fed …
Sonu Varghese
August 15, 2025
Gold Is Shiny Enough for a Strategic Portfolio Allocation
We’ve made no secret for our love for the shiny object over the last two and half years (and not just because my name is derived from the Hindi word “sona,” which means gold). I wrote about gold as a crisis hedge back in March 2023, amid the Silicon Valley Bank Crisis. We were amongst …
Sonu Varghese
August 14, 2025
Inflation Read: On Track for a September Cut but not Out of the Woods Yet
The market cheered the July Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) inflation report released yesterday, August 13, 2025, but mostly because it was perceived to be good enough to keep the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) on track for a September rate cut. The market-implied odds for a September cut rose from 86% to 94% according to the CME …
Barry Gilbert
August 13, 2025
Trump’s Executive Order Could Open 401(k)s to Alternatives
Authored by Michael Barczak, CFA, VP Retirement Plans – Investments President Trump just signed an executive order that could set the stage for a major shift in workplace retirement plans. The order directs the Department of Labor (DOL) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to take a fresh look at how alternative assets …
Carson Research
August 12, 2025
Technology Earnings Takeaways
Investors in tech stocks are walking away from this earnings season with a smile. The five major tech companies all saw a positive revision to their full year earnings estimates, according to FactSet data, and each has seen its share price rise since the start of this reporting season. Forward-looking commentary also supports a potentially …
Blake Anderson
August 11, 2025
From Our View, These Are The Best Seven Charts Right Now
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame Yankees catcher I was honored to be included in the fifth volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook! This incredible report is compiled by Josh Schaefer, Markets Reporter at Yahoo Finance, and we think it is simply a must read for all …
Ryan Detrick
August 8, 2025
The Two Sides of AI in the Economy
This chart from our friend, Neil Dutta, Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro, tells an absolutely incredible story if you ask me: it tells you that spending on artificial intelligence (both IT hardware equipment and software) contributed an average of 1.0%-point to GDP growth over the last two quarters. That’s more than the contribution of …
Sonu Varghese
August 7, 2025
7 Policy Mistakes That Could Undermine Our Bullish Policy Outlook Updated
“If pro is the opposite of con, does that make progress the opposite of Congress?” -famous quip On July 20, we passed the first six months of the second Trump administration, or 1/8 of the way into Donald Trump’s second term. Over time we have been updating our view of potential policy risks, within the …
Barry Gilbert
August 7, 2025