Investments
May Payrolls Were OK, but There’s Weakness Under the Hood
On the face of it, the May payroll report was ok. The economy created 139,000 jobs in May (above expectations for a 126,000 increase) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. But pop the hood and there’s cause for concern. For one thing, we got a net 95,000 downward revision of jobs created in …
Sonu Varghese
June 6, 2025
The Big Picture: The US Economy Is Losing Steam
We can use fairly timely economic data without having to wait for GDP data or calls from a “recession dating committee” (at the National Bureau of Economic Research) to gauge whether the economy is close to or in a recession, or even recovering for that matter. This includes data like initial unemployment claims, unemployment rate, …
Sonu Varghese
June 5, 2025
12 Amazing Facts About the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Its Birthday
We had a big birthday last week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 129 years young! It is the second oldest index (the Dow Jones Transportation Average is older) and was first calculated on May 26, 1896 by Charles Dow, co-founder of both the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones & Company. It started …
Ryan Detrick
June 4, 2025
Why Bulls Love TACOs
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down …
Ryan Detrick
June 4, 2025
Global Stock Markets Are Booming, Despite U.S. Struggles
Diversification away from US stocks has been a frustrating exercise for those of us involved in asset allocation for a good 15 years or so now. There have been a few good years, notably 2017, but it’s been rare. Coming into 2025, you would not have thought that international stocks would outperform, let alone by …
Sonu Varghese
June 3, 2025
Nvidia’s Beat and My Appearance on FvF!
Nvidia released its latest earnings report after market close on Wednesday, delivering results that beat expectations. The company has had anything but a smooth start to the year, most recently having to manage through a ban on selling product to Chinese customers. Yet, these latest results show the company keeps executing as guidance implies a …
Blake Anderson
June 2, 2025
Why A Strong May Could Have Bulls Smiling
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain So much for Sell in May! With a day to go, we are looking at potentially the best month of May for the S&P 500 in 35 years. As we noted at the start of the month, the odds favored a big rally in May …
Ryan Detrick
May 30, 2025
RIP Liberation Day?
Well, this came out of the blue, but a U.S. court essentially cancelled the tariffs that set off a global trade war (technically paused until July). The US Court of International Trade (USCIT) struck down all of the “IEEPA” tariffs imposed by President Trump. IEEPA is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that was passed …
Sonu Varghese
May 29, 2025
Talking with Dan Ives about the Future of Tech, AI and Innovation
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines. Broadcasting from Carson’s 2025 …
Ryan Detrick
May 28, 2025
Why Mom and Pop Might Now Be the Smart Money
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway We’ve been talking a lot the how during this near bear market and historic bounce back of 2025, retail investors have been buying aggressively, while institutional money managers have been scared and underinvested. Historically, we’ve …
Ryan Detrick
May 27, 2025
You Never Know
“You never know when you will get that call. Enjoy yourself.” Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group Today is the Friday before Memorial Day weekend, which is a day I will never forget. One year ago today my baby brother called me, which at first seemed similar to the thousands of other times …
Ryan Detrick
May 23, 2025
How Meaningful Is the US Debt Downgrade by Moody’s?
Short answer: not very much. The longer answer is also pretty much the same thing, but it’s really the context around the debt downgrade, and especially the US fiscal situation, that raises important questions, not the downgrade by itself. Last Friday evening (May 16th), Moody’s finally joined their counterparts at S&P and Fitch in downgrading …
Sonu Varghese
May 21, 2025