Investments
Talking About Everything With Skanda Amarnath
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts. Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, …
Ryan Detrick
May 21, 2025
What Happened Last Week Was Rare and Likely Quite Bullish
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” Bob Dylan, Subterranean Homesick Blues What a week last week was, as the S&P 500 gained more than 3% on Monday after a 90-day pause in tariffs with China was announced. Incredibly, stocks gained the next four days as well. March 2003 was …
Ryan Detrick
May 20, 2025
Autonomous Vehicles Accelerate
Autonomous Vehicles (‘AVs’) have rapidly shifted from hype to help. Long touted as a transformational technology, AVs have often been discussed with uncertain timelines for adoption. But recent breakthroughs from Waymo and Uber show accelerating usage and growing profitability—key signals that AVs may finally be here to stay. With momentum building, your next ride could …
Blake Anderson
May 19, 2025
Two Big Things to Keep an Eye On
In our 2025 Outlook, we highlighted the threat of tariffs and risk of elevated interest rates if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut. Well, both have manifested now. Average tariff rates, even after the China pause, are at the highest level since 1934 — rising from 2.4% at the start of the year to 17.8%. If …
Sonu Varghese
May 16, 2025
Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump
Oil prices have collapsed in recent months, with WTI crude oil prices now closer to $60/barrel after hitting $80/barrel in mid-January. Prices are down over 10% from the beginning of the year, and over 20% from peak levels in January. Normally, you’d think this would translate to lower prices at the pump. But that’s not …
Sonu Varghese
May 15, 2025
3 Takeaways from a Near-Bear Market
It may be a little early to do a post-mortem on the February 19 – April 8, 2025 near-bear market, but maybe it’s not too early to find perspective that we didn’t have “in the moment.” Despite the unusual driver of this particular near-bear market, really just a single actor (who also gets credit for …
Barry Gilbert
May 14, 2025
Holy Smokes, Are the Lows In?
In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors. After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally …
Ryan Detrick
May 14, 2025
Why This Rally Is Like a Beach Ball Under Water
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch, famed mutual fund manager What a few months for investors. After crashing more than 10% only two days after Liberation Day on April 2, fear and panic were in the …
Ryan Detrick
May 13, 2025
Tech Leaders Testify
Leaders from some of the companies at the forefront of the AI Revolution appeared on Capitol Hill this week to testify before the Senate Commerce Committee. Their remarks focused primarily on America’s artificial intelligence capabilities amid a dynamic geotechnical landscape. These leaders emphasized the benefits of building with technological freedom and pointed to competitive …
Blake Anderson
May 12, 2025
How To Identify a Recession, and Why It Matters for Investors
Recession calls have increased since the Liberation Day tariff extravaganza, with most economists increasing the odds of a recession in the next 12 months quite significantly relative to odds at the beginning of the year. The Wall Street Journal’s panel of economists raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 45% …
Sonu Varghese
May 9, 2025
The Fed Is Buying Into the Tariff Bull Case, but That Pushes Out Cuts
The Federal Reserve (Fed) didn’t move policy rates at their May meeting, keeping them in the 4.25-4.50% range. This was widely expected, but all eyes (and ears) were on how they would telegraph future moves. Short answer: they didn’t. The only major change in the official post-meeting statement was that risks of higher unemployment and …
Sonu Varghese
May 8, 2025
The Bull and Bear Case for Bonds
Bonds have actually had a good run over the last year (for bonds). The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (“Agg”) is up 5.8% trailing year as of yesterday’s close versus 4.9% for the Bloomberg US 1-3 Month Treasury Bill Index. That’s a fair discount to the S&P 500 over the same period (9.7%), but still …
Barry Gilbert
May 7, 2025