Investments
A Less Than Magnificent Year
The Magnificent 7 group of stocks has seen a poor start to 2025. The group entered 2025 with premium valuations, and expectations for premium growth to continue. But earnings growth has only fallen in line with the broader market, and that represents a sharp slowdown compared to the group’s recent performance. Investors may be well …
Blake Anderson
March 17, 2025
Houston, We Have a Correction. Now What?
“Everybody in the world is a long-term investor … until the market goes down.” Peter Lynch, famous fund manager After another big down day on Thursday, stocks officially fell into a correction, with the S&P 500 down more than 10% from the February 19th peak. Although this hasn’t been fun, we can’t say it wasn’t …
Ryan Detrick
March 14, 2025
Using Valuations to Cut Through the Noise
There is never a dull moment in financial markets, which can be both the attraction to and distraction of our industry. The start to 2025 is, of course, no exception. A strong economic backdrop and calm start to the year has given way to headline risk and even more over-analysis of economic data, Fed speak, …
Grant Engelbart
March 13, 2025
Treasuries Playing Defense Again (for Now)
For the second consecutive decline of 5% or more in the S&P 500, long Treasuries have been playing defense, at least so far. Here “playing defense” means a return better than short Treasuries, although over short periods of time that’s usually near zero. I’m using long Treasuries here as a proxy for bonds, because they …
Barry Gilbert
March 12, 2025
Talking Pies, Pi Day & St. Patty’s Day with Warren Pies
Key Takeaways: Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there’s no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong. The Fed’s Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth. Government Spending & Deficits: Large …
Ryan Detrick
March 12, 2025
March Madness
“The stock market is the only place where things go on sale yet everyone runs out of the store screaming.” Old Wall Street saying What is it about March that brings volatility? Yesterday was the worst day of the year for stocks and worries over tariffs and a growing trade war dominate the headlines. Now …
Ryan Detrick
March 11, 2025
Tumbling Technology
The stock price change of technology companies is on pace for the second worst start to a year in the last decade. Sector investment fund returns are notably lagging their recent historical averages even as earnings expectations have so far held up. Additionally, momentum-based correlations have broken down and index-based dispersion has increased, signaling that …
Blake Anderson
March 10, 2025
No Recession in Sight for the US Economy, but No Cyclical Acceleration Either
The February employment report was a bit mixed. It didn’t tell us much that is new about the US economy, but that in and of itself is a story, depending on your expectations: If you were expecting near recession-like conditions, we don’t have that If you were expecting GDP growth to be closer to 3% …
Sonu Varghese
March 7, 2025
Ten Questions on Tariffs, the Economy, Markets, and Our Outlook
Ok, tariffs happened. But now what is the big question—for policy, the economy, and obviously, markets. Here are Carson Investment Research’s answer to 10 key questions. One: What tariffs went into effect? At 12:01am on March 4th, new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China went into effect. These included: 25% tariffs on all Canadian …
Sonu Varghese
March 5, 2025
Growth Scare
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the “growth scare” and discuss whether the bull …
Ryan Detrick
March 5, 2025
Wait, Is GDP Growth Really Going To Be Negative in Q1?
Even as the world’s attention last Friday was focused elsewhere, we got a real doozy of a data update in one corner of the economic universe. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Real GDP “Nowcast” for Q1 plunged from 2.3% to -1.5%, and then down to -2.8% after more data on Monday. Yeah, that’s not a typo, …
Sonu Varghese
March 4, 2025
Why We Expect Some Green in March
“Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.” Warren Buffett, Chairperson at Berkshire Hathaway Welcome to March and good riddance to February! In the end, February was a choppy and frustrating month, but this wasn’t a big surprise, as we wrote about and discussed all month. Are better times …
Ryan Detrick
March 3, 2025