Investments
Dividends, Buybacks, and Tax-Efficient Investing
Ryan and I recently hosted Meb Faber of Cambria Investments on our Facts vs Feelings podcast. We covered a lot in that episode, but I want to pick out one thread in particular, i.e. dividends vs buybacks. As we discussed, dividends are one way corporation can return excess cash to shareholders. However, they can also …
Sonu Varghese
July 25, 2023
About That Dow 9-Day Win Streak…
“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.” – Winston Churchill How about that? As soon as we released our Mid-Year Outlook and talked about this bull market broadening out the rest of this year, with other areas besides just technology and communications leading, we find the Dow up nine days in …
Ryan Detrick
July 21, 2023
It’s a Bird. It’s A Plane! It’s … the US Economy!
We just got a bunch of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). Long story short: Not only do we see no sign of recession, but it also doesn’t even look like the economy is looking for a “landing” at this point. I realize this could change, but so far …
Sonu Varghese
July 20, 2023
Yes, There Were Clues That ’23 Would Be a Big Year for Stocks
“You can learn a lot by looking.” -Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra Stocks had one of their best starts to a year ever after six months in 2023 and the fun has only continued so far in July. If you’ve followed us since late last year then you know that we expected a good …
Ryan Detrick
July 19, 2023
The Dollar is Weakening – Why That’s Good for US Investors
At the beginning of the year, we wrote in our 2023 Outlook that the US dollar was poised to weaken, creating tailwinds for Americans who invest in International stocks and S&P 500 earnings. We reiterated that this is starting to happen in our Mid-Year Outlook, “Edging Closer to Normal.” The chart below shows the recent …
Sonu Varghese
July 18, 2023
Shake It Off, Bears! This is a Swift Economy, and We’re Just Living In It
“Despite the slowing recovery in tourism in the region overall, one contact highlighted that May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the onset of the pandemic, in large part due to an influx of guests for the Taylor Swift concerts in the city,” -Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank The economy has surprised …
Ryan Detrick
July 14, 2023
Midyear Outlook: Q3 Update
Stocks have continued to bounce back in 2023 after last year’s bear market, and with the debt ceiling fight in Congress now behind us, what could the rest of the year look like? Is the market still trending in the right direction? What moves should we expect from the Fed? Are fears of a recession …
Carson Group
July 13, 2023
The Path to Lower Inflation is Now Clear
The June CPI report was a positive surprise, both in terms of the headline numbers as well as the underlying details. Headline inflation rose 0.2% in June, which translates to a 2.2% annual pace. Over the past three months, inflation’s averaged about 2.7%, and over the last year it’s up 3.0%. That’s well off the …
Sonu Varghese
July 13, 2023
Carson Investment Research’s Mid-Year Outlook ’23: Edging Closer to Normal
Six months ago we were one of the only places that said there wouldn’t be a recession in ’23 and stocks could do quite well, maybe even hitting new highs with some good news. To say that wasn’t a popular call would be a major understatement. Now after one of the best starts to a …
Carson Research
July 12, 2023
Here We Go Again
“Here I go again on my own. Going down the only road I’ve ever known.” -Here I Go Again by Whitesnake One of the main reasons we came into 2023 overweight equities (when everyone else was talking recessions and bear markets) was the over-the-top negativity. Rarely is the crowd and obvious trade right when it …
Ryan Detrick
July 11, 2023
Here Comes the Carson Investment Research Midyear Outlook
What a first half it has been, with stocks having one of their best starts to a year ever and the economy defying many by avoiding the most broadcast recession of all-time. We came into this year saying good things could happen and it wasn’t very well received, as nearly everyone on tv was talking …
Ryan Detrick
July 7, 2023
Big Picture: The Economy is Normalizing
We started this year discussing how the economy has been at the “edge of normal” in our 2023 outlook. The good news is that we have slowly but surely moved towards normal since then, even in the face of a banking crisis and debt ceiling drama. The “soft” economic data from sentiment surveys have been …
Sonu Varghese
July 6, 2023