In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.
The conversation starts where May always takes us. “Sell in May and Go Away.” Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It’s not about selling everything on May 1. It’s about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq’s growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.
From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.
Oh, and Sonu’s birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu’s birthday, go sober on Ryan’s.
Key Takeaways:
- “Sell in May” is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.
- Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).
- The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff’s target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.
- Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff’s preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.
- Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.
- The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic “bear killer” October bounce.
Jump to:
0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch
1:37 — Sell in May Reframed
6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality
10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months
14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness
22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist
28:05 — Sixth-Year Tailwinds and Targets
35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices
39:35 — The Hirsch Family Almanac Story
44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift
50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks
53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
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